SAT 22:15 ET|RICE-ECCLES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
1-2
74
99
36
14%
89
98
21.5
+380
+12.5
HOME
43
3-0
58
95
53
68%
77
60
34.0
-500
-12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALARK10—UTAH43
CLOSED UTAH -12.5TOTAL 55.5UTAH COVERED · 53 POINTS · UNDER
ARK
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UTAH
ARK
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UTAH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUTAH -12.5
IMPLIED — ARK21.5
IMPLIED — UTAH34.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
76FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTAHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
UTAH won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSASUTAH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB88%Julian NealDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKani WalkerDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WoodenDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB86%Taylen GreenDRAFTED · 86% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB76%Mike Washington Jr.DRAFTED · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Xavian Sorey Jr.LB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephen Dix Jr.LB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustus BoonePORTAL · WISCONSIN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Cameron BallDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan GeffrardPORTAL · TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip LeeDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%O'Mega BlakeWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaylen SharpeWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRohan JonesTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL56%Corey Robinson IIOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFernando CarmonaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE'Marion HarrisOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJahiem Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEBraydon Lee · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDJalon Copeland · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBAJ Hill · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISHank Hendrix · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBTJ Hodges · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBKhmori House · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAPhoenix Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORBen Bogle · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLHunter Osborne · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIADanny Beale III · SIGNEE ★4Anthony Kennedy Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEChris Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEDequane Prevo · SIGNEE ★3Jude Hall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBryant Williams · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISIANATerence Roberson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OUACHITA BAPTISTTucker Young · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.125 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.969 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.012 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52528510051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6060733583 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595971362411 OF 24 GRADED
OL62627260225 OF 22 GRADED
DL575774412012 OF 20 GRADED
LB5555704096 OF 9 GRADED
DB54547015249 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%76
RECRUITING CLASS#46 · 3/20 BC66
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 41 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTAHMORGAN SCALLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARK OFFENSEUTAH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUTAH DEFENSE ARK QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7UTAH DEFENSE ARK OFFENSIVE LINEn=2240% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7UTAH DEFENSE ARK RUNNING BACKSn=865% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555767%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456297%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS OFFENSESECONDARYUTAH DEFENSE ARK PASS CATCHERSn=2464% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+11
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.5%
58.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS77.5%
51.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE6.4%
9.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARK, ORANGE = UTAH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE