SAT 12:45 ET|SANFORD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP63|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
0-2
37
27
41
84%
91
18
7.5
—
+40.5
HOME
70
2-0
100
73
92
69%
21
91
48.0
—
-40.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWKU20—UGA70
CLOSED UGA -40.5TOTAL 55.5UGA COVERED · 90 POINTS · OVER
WKU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UGA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUGA -40.5
IMPLIED — WKU7.5
IMPLIED — UGA48.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT35 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 35 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WKURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
WESTERN KENTUCKY won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.0
GEORGIA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN KENTUCKYGEORGIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Marvis ParrishPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Hart IIIRB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'Vell WrightPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL84%Quincy JenkinsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarshall JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaurence Seymore IIIOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Nazir WardPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKent RobinsonDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan FlowersPORTAL · DUKE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE59%Matthew HenryWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah MeyersPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJairus MackWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB57%Anthony BrackenridgeLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller MaloneLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic OliverLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Maverick McIvorQB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL49%Harper HollomanPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoron HaywardPORTAL · TCU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HardyDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBLe'Kamren Meadows · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRoq Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMARhett Larson · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONZayden Walters · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBD'Cambren Verrett · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLEJaylen Pollard · SIGNEE ★3Taron Essex · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECC Ezirim · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJyzaiah Rockwell · PORTAL ★3 · PRAIRIE VIEW A&MDevin Hamilton · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMakhi Brazier · SIGNEE ★3Westen Ard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBrock Glenn · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATECam O'Hara · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCeeJay Embry · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Fulda · SIGNEE ★3Henry Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.328 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
19.217 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.050 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB3333741063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4545513121CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL393921017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL292932782311 OF 23 GRADED
LB28282042103 OF 10 GRADED
DB49492653208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#81 · 0/24 BC40
CLASS RANK TREND+30 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WKUTYSON HELTON8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWKU OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE WKU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE WKU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE WKU RUNNING BACKSn=690% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554872%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455467%76%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE WKU PASS CATCHERSn=2169% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+1
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.6%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.2%
50.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE12.7%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WKU, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE