SAT 19:45 ET|VAUGHT-HEMINGWAY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP66|O/U59.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
0-3
25
7
34
41%
37
34
7.5
—
+44.5
HOME
41
3-0
91
93
72
50%
72
99
52.0
—
-44.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCLT9—MISS41
CLOSED MISS -44.5TOTAL 59.5CLT COVERED · 50 POINTS · UNDER
CLT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MISS
CLT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MISS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL59.5
SPREADMISS -44.5
IMPLIED — CLT7.5
IMPLIED — MISS52.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT18 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 18 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CLTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.0
CHARLOTTE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
OLE MISS won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCHARLOTTEOLE MISS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL83%Mo Clipper Jr.OL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDallas ShirleyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason BowersOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB78%Ja'Qurious ConleyDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDwight Bootle IIPORTAL · ARIZONA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCary GrantPORTAL · APP STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE77%Javen NicholasPORTAL · DUKE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE. Jai MasonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean BrownWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB76%Rod Gainey Jr.RB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameren SmithRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ StokesPORTAL · FURMAN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL63%Braden MullenDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYamil TalibPORTAL · COLORADO · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion ShockleyDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Shay TaylorLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReid WillifordLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB14%Zach WilckePORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJ'ven Williams · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATELuke Sandy · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGMathias Nielsen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNION4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJameel Croft Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASJosh Hines · SIGNEE ★3Alchino Blakely · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEJaden Barnes · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATETank Boston · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATELane Wadle · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLDevin Ancrum · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAD'Nas White · PORTAL ★3 · CATAWBAColin Bussey · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLa'Trell Sellers · SIGNEE ★3Mikey Domanik · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBJaylen White · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CHARLOTTE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.821 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.424 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.826 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB303045051 OF 5 GRADED
RB272747773 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE4747481721CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL292936020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL25253852219 OF 21 GRADED
LB34342578104 OF 10 GRADED
DB46464370227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE25th25
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%20
RECRUITING CLASS#103 · 0/19 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MISSPETE GOLDINGFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLTTIM ALBIN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLT OFFENSEMISS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOLE MISS DEFENSE CLT QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS56% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE CLT OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE CLT RUNNING BACKSn=793% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558153%59%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456328%23%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECHARLOTTE OFFENSESECONDARYOLE MISS DEFENSE CLT PASS CATCHERSn=2183% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+21
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.3%
44.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.1%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLT, ORANGE = MISS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE