SAT 19:00 ET|BOBBY DODD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
3-0
91
94
27
35%
66
84
34.0
-485
-12.5
HOME
24
1-2
76
90
39
13%
26
70
21.5
+370
+12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTENN45—GT24
CLOSED TENN -12.5TOTAL 55.5TENN COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
TENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
GT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADTENN -12.5
IMPLIED — TENN34.0
IMPLIED — GT21.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GTRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
GEORGIA TECH won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEGEORGIA TECH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Joey AguilarQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake MerklingerQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL70%Dominic BaileyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson EasonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HerringPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB62%Colton HoodDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre TurrentineDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McMurrayDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB45%Star ThomasRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton LewisPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE42%Chris Brazzell IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiles KitselmanTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack Van DorselaerTE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Lance HeardOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB10%Ben BoltonLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBFaizon Brandon · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
DLChaz Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · PENN STATEXavier Gilliam · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATECarter Gooden · SIGNEE ★47 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKayin Lee · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJamyan Theodore · SIGNEE ★3Javonte Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TETK Keys · SIGNEE ★5Tyreek King · SIGNEE ★4Luca Wolf · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLGabriel Osenda · SIGNEE ★4Kamari Blair · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBTJ White · SIGNEE ★4Brayden Rouse · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.287 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.497 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.160 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666932243 OF 4 GRADED
RB6666657465 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE767687682315 OF 23 GRADED
OL727281731812 OF 18 GRADED
DL696986552216 OF 22 GRADED
LB59597475118 OF 11 GRADED
DB555575382114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%88
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 16/32 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 21 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GTBRENT KEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEGT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA TECH DEFENSE TENN QUARTERBACKSn=478% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE TENN RUNNING BACKSn=626% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555132%15%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4538100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA TECH DEFENSE TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2332% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GT SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.0%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS42.0%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.5%
2.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = GT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE