SAT 19:30 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U51.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
1-1
97
96
99
68%
61
82
24.5
-110
+2.0
HOME
24
2-0
99
62
81
72%
84
93
26.5
-110
-2.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALOSU23—TEX24
CLOSED TEX -2.0TOTAL 51.0OSU COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
OSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADTEX -2.0
IMPLIED — OSU24.5
IMPLIED — TEX26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OSURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs12.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.8
OHIO STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATETEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB76%Sonny StylesDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArvell ReeseDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE58%Will KacmarekDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax KlareDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarnell TateDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Caleb DownsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavison IgbinosunDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLorenzo Styles Jr.DRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Caden CurryDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKayden McDonaldDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTywone Malone Jr.DT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%CJ DonaldsonRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames PeoplesPORTAL · PENN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL18%Tegra TshabolaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB4%Lincoln KienholzPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCincere Johnson · SIGNEE ★5Braxton Rembert · SIGNEE ★4Simeon Caldwell · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEHunter Welcing · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNChris Henry Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Jerquaden Guilford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTerry Moore · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEEarl Little Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEDominick Kelly · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJames Smith · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAQua Russaw · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAKhary Wilder · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBFavour Akih · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLSam Greer · SIGNEE ★4Max Riley · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.278 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.092 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.759 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7777978463 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565885874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE686885422316 OF 23 GRADED
OL7575921002010 OF 20 GRADED
DL727293671817 OF 18 GRADED
LB787889681411 OF 14 GRADED
DB717194432311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE97th97
BLUE-CHIP RATIO68%97
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 18/30 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 17 IN / 37 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE OSU QUARTERBACKSn=616% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=200% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OSU RUNNING BACKSn=742% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556283%68%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457326%27%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE OSU PASS CATCHERSn=2358% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.0%
59.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS85.0%
68.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE