SAT 12:00 ET|BOONE PICKENS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP45|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
2-1
99
90
94
75%
89
88
39.0
-2100
-23.5
HOME
39
2-1
53
22
50
0%
99
69
15.5
+1100
+23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALORE31—OKST39
CLOSED ORE -23.5TOTAL 54.5OKST COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
ORE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OKST
ORE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OKST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADORE -23.5
IMPLIED — ORE39.0
IMPLIED — OKST15.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
ORERECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+27.7
OREGON won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.7
OKLAHOMA STATE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONOKLAHOMA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE59%Kenyon SadiqDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik BensonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Bryant Jr.WR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Noah WhittingtonRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden LimarPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay HarrisPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HarkeyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WorldOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Dillon ThienemanDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon CanadyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTheran JohnsonDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Blake PurchasePORTAL · OLE MISS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance GreenPORTAL · ALABAMA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton PorterPORTAL · HOUSTON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Bryce BoettcherDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Luke MogaPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIverson Hooks · PORTAL ★3 · UABJalen Lott · SIGNEE ★5Kendre Harrison · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSimeon Price · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTradarian Ball · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Smith · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLImmanuel Iheanacho · SIGNEE ★5Tommy Tofi · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBKoi Perich · PORTAL ★4 · MINNESOTAAaron Scott Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJett Washington · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLD'Antre Robinson · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAAnthony Jones Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Tony Cumberland · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Hodge · SIGNEE ★4Tristan Phillips · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBDylan Raiola · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKABryson Beaver · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.184 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.592 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB727210010061 OF 6 GRADED
RB68689410092 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE77779774266 OF 26 GRADED
OL75758585228 OF 22 GRADED
DL5656949685 OF 8 GRADED
LB545490100207 OF 20 GRADED
DB68689664258 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO64%96
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 18/25 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 13 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OKSTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEOKST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE ORE QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2215% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS78% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE ORE RUNNING BACKSn=90% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS79% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555435%4%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSESECONDARYOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2626% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM90% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
−11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.2%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.8%
62.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE5.5%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = OKST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE