SAT 15:30 ET|LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
2-1
61
68
90
65%
43
56
20.8
+220
+7.0
HOME
28
3-0
58
86
84
79%
20
68
27.8
-270
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALARIZ17—BYU28
CLOSED BYU -7.0TOTAL 48.5BYU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
ARIZ
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BYU
ARIZ
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BYU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADBYU -7.0
IMPLIED — ARIZ20.8
IMPLIED — BYU27.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONABYU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB83%Dalton JohnsonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGenesis SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAyden GarnesDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Sam OlsonTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris HutsonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BarmoreTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Ka'ena DecambraOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChubba MaaeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy BuchananOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Deshawn McKnightDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiaoalii SaveaDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi BaileyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Riley WilsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB4%Braedyn LockePORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB1%Kayden LukeFB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBDaylen Austin · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONCam Chapa · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOMalcolm Hartzog · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECole Rusk · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISDJ Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · USCR.J. Mosley · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Joyner · SIGNEE ★4Justin Morales · SIGNEE ★4Khalil Sanogo · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPrince Williams · SIGNEE ★3Keytrin Harris · SIGNEE ★3Manoah Faupusa · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMatai Tagoa'i · PORTAL ★3 · USCJaden Parker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBOscar Rios · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBAntwan Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.269 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.065 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.363 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262727652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050707984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484873632113 OF 21 GRADED
OL535347641610 OF 16 GRADED
DL444467621612 OF 16 GRADED
LB45455064167 OF 16 GRADED
DB575757422110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#42 · 6/20 BC69
CLASS RANK TREND+43 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 22 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BYUKALANI SITAKE11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSEBYU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBYU DEFENSE ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7BYU DEFENSE ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1636% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7BYU DEFENSE ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555786%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSESECONDARYBYU DEFENSE ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2137% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−20
−34
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.2%
67.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.2%
51.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.6%
4.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = BYU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE