SAT 15:30 ET|JMA WIRELESS DOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
2-1
77
43
66
58%
86
66
26.5
+164
+3.5
HOME
18
1-2
75
50
75
35%
97
74
30.0
-198
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCAL21—SYR18
CLOSED SYR -3.5TOTAL 56.5CAL COVERED · 39 POINTS · UNDER
CAL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SYR
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADSYR -3.5
IMPLIED — CAL26.5
IMPLIED — SYR30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCALIFORNIASYRACUSE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Kendrick RaphaelPORTAL · SMU · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLJ Johnson Jr.RB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon High Jr.PORTAL · UTSA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL75%TJ Bush Jr.PORTAL · MINNESOTA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan KeanaainaDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. BollersDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Luke FerrelliPORTAL · OLE MISS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade UluavePORTAL · BYU · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris VictorLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Jacob De JesusWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrond GrizzellWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeffrey JohnsonTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Hezekiah MassesDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrent AustinDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDru Polidore Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL50%Jordan Spasojevic-MokoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeon BellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden MillerOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Devin BrownPORTAL · WEBER STATE · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAdam Mohammed · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONVictor Santino · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJericho Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONSolomon Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MJustin Beadles · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJD McKinley · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Pyatt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEChase Hendricks · PORTAL ★4 · OHIOIan Strong · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSDorian Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · NEW MEXICO4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKingston Lopa · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONRicky Fletcher · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSDaniel Harris · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKahlee Tafai · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTADaniel McMorris · SIGNEE ★4Kamo'i Huihui-White · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNainoa Lopes · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CALIFORNIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.659 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.680 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.038 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959928862 OF 6 GRADED
RB525290174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE56567639217 OF 21 GRADED
OL52526072207 OF 20 GRADED
DL31317525156 OF 15 GRADED
LB36366033168 OF 16 GRADED
DB525270351910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO25%75
RECRUITING CLASS#56 · 2/18 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 32 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCAL OFFENSESYR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESYRACUSE DEFENSE CAL QUARTERBACKSn=612% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7SYRACUSE DEFENSE CAL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2028% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7SYRACUSE DEFENSE CAL RUNNING BACKSn=799% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554841%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECALIFORNIA OFFENSESECONDARYSYRACUSE DEFENSE CAL PASS CATCHERSn=2161% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.2%
56.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS80.3%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CAL, ORANGE = SYR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE