SAT 12:00 ET|LANE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP69|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
1-1
12
55
61
9%
0
22
15.0
+650
+17.5
HOME
44
2-0
81
74
50
37%
95
66
32.5
-1000
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALODU21—VT44
CLOSED VT -17.5TOTAL 47.5VT COVERED · 65 POINTS · OVER
ODU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
VT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADVT -17.5
IMPLIED — ODU15.0
IMPLIED — VT32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT32 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 32 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ODURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.4
OLD DOMINION won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
VIRGINIA TECH won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLD DOMINIONVIRGINIA TECH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL96%Maarten WoudsmaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephon Dubose-BourneOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan JoyceOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE90%Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingPORTAL · MARYLAND · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Cory ThomasPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre' BrownWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB87%Colton JosephPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB77%Jeremy Mack Jr.LB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahleel CulbreathPORTAL · UCF · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth NaotalaLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Trequan JonesPORTAL · TULSA · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKe'Travion HargroveRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL46%Kris TrinidadDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicardo Williams Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole DanielsDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Jerome Carter IIIPORTAL · CLEMSON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNickendre StigerS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBotros AlisandroCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLRaykwon Goldthwaite · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMABubba Craig · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASMartez Curry · PORTAL ★3 · LINCOLN (MO)1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR-RHYNEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR RHYNELeon Haughton Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJaxon Potter · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEBrooklyn Nace · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMontrell Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATELandon Kehoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHunter Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · WEST LIBERTYTrey Hall · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSREFILLED
DLBucci Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEMalachi Harris · SIGNEE ★3Chris HIlliard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJivan Baly · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEShaq Leaks · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Guerra · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLD DOMINION
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.641 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.66 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.469 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522710052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6161355063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE313134622CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL20202018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL646433901510 OF 15 GRADED
LB77772842147 OF 14 GRADED
DB57573595229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%13
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 0/18 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VTJAMES FRANKLINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ODURICKY RAHNE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESODU OFFENSEVT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE ODU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE ODU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS52% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE ODU RUNNING BACKSn=650% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS52% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555245%21%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454752%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLD DOMINION OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE ODU PASS CATCHERSn=2294% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−23
−7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS73.4%
59.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.1%
76.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
6.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ODU, ORANGE = VT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE