SAT 15:30 ET|PRATT & WHITNEY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
2-0
67
25
70
54%
94
79
32.0
-455
-11.5
HOME
14
1-1
47
64
13
2%
27
38
20.5
+350
+11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMD38—CONN14
CLOSED MD -11.5TOTAL 52.5MD COVERED · 52 POINTS · UNDER
MD
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CONN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADMD -11.5
IMPLIED — MD32.0
IMPLIED — CONN20.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MDRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.0
MARYLAND won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CONNRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.1
UCONN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARYLANDUCONN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE58%Octavian Smith Jr.WR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaleak KnottsWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalil FarooqWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Jalen HuskeyDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'khi RolandPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevyn HumesPORTAL · RUTGERS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Alan HerronOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAliou BahOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL31%Cam RiceDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillan FontusPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB25%Nolan RayPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB20%Keyshawn FlowersLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeeo AveryLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Khristian MartinPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TENa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONPreston Howard · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJavonte Williams · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAmari Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEDarrell Carey · SIGNEE ★4Sean Johnson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTellek Lockette · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEDay'Jon Moore · SIGNEE ★3Jesse Moody · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLavon Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASArmon Parker · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONDerrick LeBlanc · PORTAL ★3 · UCF4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBHarry Dalton III · PORTAL ★3 · USCINTACT
LBKaden Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNathan Bernhard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARYLAND
CARRIED COMPOSITE
66.598 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
65.095 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.597 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7474898363 OF 6 GRADED
RB5757735274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545462412117 OF 21 GRADED
OL686872902014 OF 20 GRADED
DL565670581812 OF 18 GRADED
LB48486362116 OF 11 GRADED
DB545472481913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%67
RECRUITING CLASS#43 · 2/19 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CONNJASON CANDLEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MDMIKE LOCKSLEY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMD OFFENSECONN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARYLAND OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCONN DEFENSE MD QUARTERBACKSn=617% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS83% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARYLAND OFFENSEFRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE MD OFFENSIVE LINEn=2010% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS76% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARYLAND OFFENSEFRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE MD RUNNING BACKSn=748% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS76% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553924%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARYLAND OFFENSESECONDARYUCONN DEFENSE MD PASS CATCHERSn=2159% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM90% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
+20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.6%
61.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.2%
60.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE5.2%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MD, ORANGE = CONN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE