SAT 15:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP69|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
0
1-1
28
4
40
39%
28
45
5.0
—
+44.5
HOME
52
2-0
96
87
88
51%
35
54
49.5
—
-44.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALRICE0—ND52
CLOSED ND -44.5TOTAL 54.5ND COVERED · 52 POINTS · UNDER
RICE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADND -44.5
IMPLIED — RICE5.0
IMPLIED — ND49.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRICENOTRE DAME2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB96%Ty MorrisPORTAL · RUTGERS · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew AweLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaise TitaLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB86%Chase JenkinsQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew DevillierPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Omari PorterCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus WilliamsPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton StevensonS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE76%Micah BarnettTE · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron TurnerWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrayden DickmannPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%Sean SullivanOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid StickleOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn LongOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Tony AnyanwuDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake BoenischDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB18%Daelen AlexanderPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAustin Harnetiaux · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAJesus Machado · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONJayden Cupitt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAyden Wilhelm · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaden VerMaas · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAJamir Benjamin · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAKoa Akui · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMax Mosey · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSBen Grice · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTBarry Jackson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMarcus Page Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Leyonte Chandler · SIGNEE ★3Clay Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPreston Zinter · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEChris Knauls · SIGNEE ★3Seth Clarke · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDionne Sims · SIGNEE ★3Fisher Leftwich · SIGNEE ★3Justin Powell · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RICE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.137 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.654 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.127 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565666052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454399665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4242271225CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363630017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL363641591913 OF 19 GRADED
LB5454294774 OF 7 GRADED
DB333337251910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%8
RECRUITING CLASS#104 · 0/23 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND+18 · 3 CYCLES86
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRICE OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRICE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE RICE QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRICE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE RICE OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRICE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE RICE RUNNING BACKSn=64% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557059%50%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERICE OFFENSESECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE RICE PASS CATCHERSn=2588% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−4
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS88.0%
50.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS35.1%
51.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
5.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RICE, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE