SAT 15:45 ET|DATCU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
1-2
60
81
21
15%
77
32
30.3
-148
-3.0
HOME
44
1-2
31
93
9
3%
87
26
27.3
+124
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNLV6—UNT44
CLOSED UNLV -3.0TOTAL 57.5UNT COVERED · 50 POINTS · UNDER
UNLV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNT
UNLV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADUNLV -3.0
IMPLIED — UNLV30.3
IMPLIED — UNT27.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
86FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUNLVNORTH TEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Anthony ColandreaPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE75%Nick ElksnisTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden BradleyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaejon ReynoldsWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Marsel McDuffieLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChief BordersLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan SpellmanLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Jaheem JosephS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew PowdrellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAamaris BrownDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Reid WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlani MakiheleOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik McGowanOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Tunmise AdeleyePORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen LeeDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOse EgbaseDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Keyvone LeeRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJackson Arnold · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNDerek Garcia · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETaz Reddicks · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEKeyan Burnett · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJesse Harden · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBJordan Njoku · SIGNEE ★3Ronnell Hewitt Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKyron Chambers · PORTAL ★3 · SMULandyn Cleveland · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATETylen Mathews · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGriffin Scroggs · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEMalik White · SIGNEE ★3Eli Sanchez · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLHerb Gray · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEAveon Williams · SIGNEE ★3Prin Fox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSkylar Lendsey-Vann · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UNLV
CARRIED COMPOSITE
27.119 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
16.813 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.631 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB585864041 OF 4 GRADED
RB64644310063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE434351612112 OF 21 GRADED
OL48484253218 OF 21 GRADED
DL41414556177 OF 17 GRADED
LB34343650135 OF 13 GRADED
DB47476581188 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE60th60
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%61
RECRUITING CLASS#63 · 0/28 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNTNEAL BROWNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNLVDAN MULLEN2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNLV OFFENSEUNT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUNLV OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH TEXAS DEFENSE UNLV QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS80% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE UNLV OFFENSIVE LINEn=2147% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS85% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE UNLV RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS85% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553516%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453613%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUNLV OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH TEXAS DEFENSE UNLV PASS CATCHERSn=2139% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−14
+16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.3%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.0%
65.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
6.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNLV, ORANGE = UNT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE