SAT 18:00 ET|PEDEN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 27
2-2
33
19
10
50%
13
2
24.0
+105
+1.5
HOME
29
1-2
7
53
12
63%
32
1
25.5
-125
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALJXST27—OHIO29
CLOSED OHIO -1.5TOTAL 49.5OHIO COVERED · 56 POINTS · OVER
JXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OHIO
JXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OHIO
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADOHIO -1.5
IMPLIED — JXST24.0
IMPLIED — OHIO25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT22 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 22 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJACKSONVILLE STATEOHIO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB75%Cam CookPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE72%Pearson BaldwinTE · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock RechsteinerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CoombsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Talan CarterPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGharin StansburyDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell PraterPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Tyrin TaylorCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor WoodsS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis Franklin Jr.PORTAL · WYOMING · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%Amare GraysonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie JacksonOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdrian GummOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB45%Malcolm JonesPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac WalkerLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThaxton GallagherLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB31%Gavin WimsattQB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCedric Kouemi · SIGNEE ★3Maurice Winston · SIGNEE ★3Landon Watkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TERonnel Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEDarius Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEPARTIAL
DLTristan Lyles · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Waters Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Austin Bouck · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBRob Billings IV · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONVernon Woodward III · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISKaden Cook · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCaleb Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHHadine Diaby · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAVern Faulk · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Matthews · SIGNEE ★3Devin Pettway · SIGNEE ★3Jameson McCollough · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNoah Lee · SIGNEE ★3Donovan Moorhead · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JACKSONVILLE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.453 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.436 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.967 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959649752 OF 5 GRADED
RB53535410083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE49493234276 OF 27 GRADED
OL39393838247 OF 24 GRADED
DL505058661510 OF 15 GRADED
LB393951891811 OF 18 GRADED
DB545439512714 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE33rd33
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%44
RECRUITING CLASS#86 · 0/30 BC36
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OHIOJOHN HAUSERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JXSTCHARLES KELLY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJXST OFFENSEOHIO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOHIO DEFENSE JXST QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE JXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2462% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE JXST RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553867%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYOHIO DEFENSE JXST PASS CATCHERSn=2766% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
−16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.6%
57.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.3%
58.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JXST, ORANGE = OHIO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE