SAT 19:00 ET|ELLIOTT T. BOWERS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
35
32.0
-500
-12.5
HOME
17
0-2
15
1
5
58%
51
18
19.5
+380
+12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTLSA23—SHSU17
CLOSED TLSA -12.5TOTAL 51.5SHSU COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
TLSA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SHSU
TLSA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SHSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADTLSA -12.5
IMPLIED — TLSA32.0
IMPLIED — SHSU19.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SHSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-20.1
SAM HOUSTON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULSASAM HOUSTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Dominic RichardsonRB · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAjay AllenPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraylin PresleyRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL72%J'Dan BurnettPORTAL · RUTGERS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahki JohnsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim HardimanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Brody FoleyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion SteptoePORTAL · MINNESOTA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion BookerPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL64%Simon WilsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaQuan AdamsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean HillOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Ray ConeyPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AnglinPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha GarrettPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB25%Lento Smith Jr.S · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChamp LewisPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB20%Kirk FrancisPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrequan Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONDamari Alston · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNSeth Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKyran Duhon · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEThomas Davis · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEKadin Fossung · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDavid Wells Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEGrant McAtee · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGEJavon Ross · PORTAL ★3 · BETHUNE-COOKMAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Preciado · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMADeminio Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Dawson Matthews · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBReilarean Phillips · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaldra Williford · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORKeynan Farley · SIGNEE ★3Carter Langenderfer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBKyden Barker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.558 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.829 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3737910071 OF 7 GRADED
RB454565073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505040262011 OF 20 GRADED
OL46463680207 OF 20 GRADED
DL454549341611 OF 16 GRADED
LB37374581113 OF 11 GRADED
DB414147682310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#93 · 0/18 BC31
CLASS RANK TREND-39 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SHSUPHIL LONGO2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTLSA OFFENSESHSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULSA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAM HOUSTON DEFENSE TLSA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULSA OFFENSEFRONT-7SAM HOUSTON DEFENSE TLSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULSA OFFENSEFRONT-7SAM HOUSTON DEFENSE TLSA RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554056%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULSA OFFENSESECONDARYSAM HOUSTON DEFENSE TLSA PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−4
+15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.7%
40.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS47.9%
79.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TLSA, ORANGE = SHSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE