THU 19:30 ET|ACRISURE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
1-2
75
50
75
35%
97
68
20.5
+330
+10.5
HOME
27
3-0
54
59
80
40%
68
62
31.0
-425
-10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSYR13—PITT27
CLOSED PITT -10.5TOTAL 51.5PITT COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
SYR
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
PITT
SYR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PITT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADPITT -10.5
IMPLIED — SYR20.5
IMPLIED — PITT31.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSEPITTSBURGH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Will NixonRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYasin WillisPORTAL · KANSAS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HartPORTAL · UCONN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%David ReeseDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Jobity Jr.DL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion Wilson Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Dan VillariTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell Gill Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohntay Cook IIPORTAL · OLE MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Da'Metrius WeatherspoonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ FergusonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin CollinsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB48%Rickie CollinsPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB35%Duce ChestnutDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GrantDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBerry Buxton IIIDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Anwar SparrowLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Heard Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJu'Juan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · LSUShavane Anderson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDillan Fontus · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDKamron Wilson · SIGNEE ★4Jarius Rodgers · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMatt Outten · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMichael Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINACalvin Russell III · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLOluwafunto Akinshilo · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJaveion Cooper · SIGNEE ★3Joseph White · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBZaid Lott · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTedarius Hughes · SIGNEE ★4Chase Geter · SIGNEE ★3Terrance Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBGemaus Sackie · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.566 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.147 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4848818673 OF 7 GRADED
RB4848637264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5151612021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL4747471423CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL48486541157 OF 15 GRADED
LB53535954129 OF 12 GRADED
DB62626388229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE75th75
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 4/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSEPITT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPITTSBURGH DEFENSE SYR QUARTERBACKSn=714% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2386% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE SYR RUNNING BACKSn=628% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556579%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSESECONDARYPITTSBURGH DEFENSE SYR PASS CATCHERSn=2180% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+25
−7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.8%
59.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.7%
68.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = PITT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE