SAT 12:00 ET|WEMBLEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
2-1
68
61
86
16%
43
70
28.5
-218
-5.5
HOME
17
1-2
55
87
56
18%
79
57
23.0
+180
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALASU24—KU17
CLOSED ASU -5.5TOTAL 51.5ASU COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
ASU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
KU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADASU -5.5
IMPLIED — ASU28.5
IMPLIED — KU23.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
KURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
KANSAS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONA STATEKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Sam LeavittPORTAL · LSU · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff SimsQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB79%Raleek BrownPORTAL · TEXAS · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKanye UdohPORTAL · LIBERTY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB78%Jordan CrookLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeyshaun ElliottDRAFTED · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Max IheanachorDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle ScottOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AtkinsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Myles RowserDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith Abney IIDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavan RobinsonPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Chamon MetayerTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik McClainWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordyn TysonDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL54%Elijah O'NealDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob Rich KongaikaDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin WodtlyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCutter Boley · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJake Fette · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBCardae Mack · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBOwen Long · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADO STATEMason Marden · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTana Alo-Tupuola · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHLuke Baklenko · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMACortavious Tisaby · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBAshton Stamps · PORTAL ★3 · LSULyrik Rawls · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASAntoine Belgrave-Shorter · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEOmarion Miller · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOReed Harris · PORTAL ★4 · BOSTON COLLEGERaiden Vines-Bright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJalen Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEEmar'rion Winston · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORJulian Hugo · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.332 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.437 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.533 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB636382043 OF 4 GRADED
RB5454656177 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505080372013 OF 20 GRADED
OL494966662113 OF 21 GRADED
DL595960502015 OF 20 GRADED
LB67677041107 OF 10 GRADED
DB565668451914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE68th68
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%64
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 4/17 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 24 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
KULANCE LEIPOLD6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESASU OFFENSEKU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEKANSAS DEFENSE ASU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE ASU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2134% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7KANSAS DEFENSE ASU RUNNING BACKSn=739% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556158%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYKANSAS DEFENSE ASU PASS CATCHERSn=2063% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
KU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
KU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.6%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.1%
54.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ASU, ORANGE = KU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE