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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›UNC @ CLEM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH CAROLINA
CLEMSON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U44.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
42FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-0
80
51
65
28%
8
75
20.8
+140
+3.0
HOME
—AP
46FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
1-1
89
58
78
41%
27
69
23.8
-166
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADCLEM -3.0
IMPLIED — UNC20.8
IMPLIED — CLEM23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
54 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
45 / 56
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
UNC PACE33.3s
8
CLEM PACE30.3s
27
SHARED PACE31.8s
18
PLAY VOLUME114
18
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
11
PROE
59
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE11p
11
PROE59p
59
TEMPO8p
8
CLEM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
87
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE87p
87
TEMPO27p
27
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CLEMRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.3
CLEMSON won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH CAROLINACLEMSON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Gio LopezPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax JohnsonPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL87%Daniel KingOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakai MooreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BlaskeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB87%Andrew SimpsonLB · 64% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikai GbayorPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Kobe PaysourWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JohnsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan OwensTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Khmori HousePORTAL · ARKANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus AllenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin GibsonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Smith VilbertDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Antre RobinsonPORTAL · OREGON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ MimsPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB37%Davion GausePORTAL · NC STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HoodRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTravis Burgess · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJ.B. Shabazz · SIGNEE ★4Will Conroy · SIGNEE ★3Da'Ron Parks · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBCalvin Thomas · SIGNEE ★4DQ Forkpa · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEJelani Thurman · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJordan Washington · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTrech Kekahuna · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKenton Dopson III · SIGNEE ★4Jakob Weatherspoon · SIGNEE ★4Julian Peterson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLVodney Cleveland · SIGNEE ★4Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu · SIGNEE ★4Trashawn Ruffin · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCrew Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.523 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.021 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.932 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464061 OF 6 GRADED
RB33337310083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE40408526207 OF 20 GRADED
OL47477860206 OF 20 GRADED
DL45456865177 OF 17 GRADED
LB60602720135 OF 13 GRADED
DB535378972111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%79
RECRUITING CLASS#19 · 12/40 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 20 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNC OFFENSECLEM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
31OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSECLEMSON DEFENSE
UNC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BILLY EDWARDS JR.QBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
604TH YR8464★3-13
MILES O'NEILLQBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
482ND YR—64★3—
TRAVIS BURGESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
AU'TORI NEWKIRKQBRET
451ST YR—75★3—
DJ MAZZONEQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5756%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
58100%33%
SECONDARYDB
5656%40%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
47
RET
60
DL
40OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7CLEMSON DEFENSE
UNC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN BANFIELDOLRET
503RD YR8185★3+32
CHRISTO KELLYOLRET
494TH YR5185★3—
ANDREW THREATTOLPORTAL · CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
494TH YR3664★3—
J.B. SHABAZZOLTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
JORDAN HALLOLRET
463RD YR6778★3-42
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAMMY BROWNLBRET
853RD YR94100★5-6 2025
LONDON MERRITTDEPORTAL · COLORADO
712ND YR6278★3+17
WILL HELDTDERET
704TH YR9792★4+40
DEVARRICK WOODSDTPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
694TH YR4964★3—
ARMON MASONDERET
554TH YR43—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
33
RET
100
DL
40OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7CLEMSON DEFENSE
UNC RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEMON JUNERBRET
532ND YR6269★3+8
CHARLESTON FRENCHRBRET
523RD YR—17★3+37 2025
JAYLEN MCGILLRBRET
512ND YR2684★3+28
BENJAMIN HALLRBRET
453RD YR7264★3-50
JOJO TROUPERBRET
351ST YR—60★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555756%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4558100%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
40
RET
26
DB
46OF 138
DB RET
56
SECONDARYCLEMSON DEFENSE
UNC PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN SHIPPWRRET
663RD YR9095★4+0
JELANI THURMANTEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
533RD YR5089★3+25
CARSON SNEEDTETRUE FR
511ST YR—75★3—
MASON HUMPHREYWRPORTAL · LEHIGH
494TH YR2264★3—
C.J. SADLERWRTRUE FR
491ST YR2094★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLEM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RONAN HANAFINSRET
864TH YR7988★4+14
JEROME CARTER IIISPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
853RD YR8645★3+24
ELLIOT WASHINGTON IICBPORTAL · PENN STATE
714TH YR8278★3-26
COREY MYRICKSPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
703RD YR8445★3+57
KYLON GRIFFINSRET
604TH YR7761★3+35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.7
35.7
— OFFENSE
46.0
39.1
— DEFENSE
39.5
32.3
SP+ OVERALL
6.4
8.1
FPI
6.3
5.3
ELO
1395
1558
TALENT
768
863
PRODUCTION
60
84
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.52
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
OFF EFFICIENCY
18
53
DEF EFFICIENCY
51
86
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
40
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
70
14
FINISHING DRIVES
25
68
FIELD POSITION
46
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
22
40
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLEM
PASS RATE
52.8%
52.1%
PACE
33.3s
30.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.7%
56.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
54.0
59.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNC, ORANGE = CLEM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE