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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›WKU @ IU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
INDIANA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 16:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP36|O/U60.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
120FPI
WKUCUSAWESTERN KENTUCKY
0-2
37
27
41
84%
91
4
8.0
—
+44.5
HOME
#5AP
6FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
2-0
73
97
97
17%
5
76
52.5
—
-44.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADIU -44.5
IMPLIED — WKU8.0
IMPLIED — IU52.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
3 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
46 / 56
DISAGREEMENT43 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 43 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
WKU PACE24.0s
91
IU PACE34.0s
5
SHARED PACE29.0s
48
PLAY VOLUME128
48
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WKU67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
89
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE89p
89
TEMPO91p
91
IU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
98
PROE
43
TEMPO
5
EXPLOSIVE98p
98
PROE43p
43
TEMPO5p
5
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WKURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
WESTERN KENTUCKY won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN KENTUCKYINDIANA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Marvis ParrishPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Hart IIIRB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'Vell WrightPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL84%Quincy JenkinsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarshall JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaurence Seymore IIIOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Nazir WardPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKent RobinsonDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan FlowersPORTAL · DUKE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE59%Matthew HenryWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah MeyersPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJairus MackWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB57%Anthony BrackenridgeLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller MaloneLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic OliverLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Maverick McIvorQB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL49%Harper HollomanPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoron HaywardPORTAL · TCU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HardyDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBLe'Kamren Meadows · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRoq Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMARhett Larson · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONZayden Walters · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBD'Cambren Verrett · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLEJaylen Pollard · SIGNEE ★3Taron Essex · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECC Ezirim · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJyzaiah Rockwell · PORTAL ★3 · PRAIRIE VIEW A&MDevin Hamilton · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMakhi Brazier · SIGNEE ★3Westen Ard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBrock Glenn · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATECam O'Hara · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCeeJay Embry · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Fulda · SIGNEE ★3Henry Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.328 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
19.217 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.050 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB3333741063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4545513121CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL393921017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL292932782311 OF 23 GRADED
LB28282042103 OF 10 GRADED
DB49492653208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#81 · 0/24 BC40
CLASS RANK TREND+30 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WKUTYSON HELTON8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
PACE
5656
PASS RATE
9292
EXPLOSIVENESS
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWKU OFFENSEIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
52
RET
100
NATIONAL
8OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEINDIANA DEFENSE
WKU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RODNEY TISDALE JR.QBRET
492ND YR6525★3+12
BROCK GLENNQBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
463RD YR5945★3-56
CALEB MCMICKLEQBRET
373RD YR—17★3—
CAM O'HARAQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
7692%18%
SECONDARYDB
7574%16%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
39
RET
0
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
WKU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISIAH STOUDEMIREOLRET
521ST YR—21★3—
ROQ MONTGOMERYOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
503RD YR—64★3—
TAI RAYOLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
503RD YR—17★3—
RHETT LARSONOLPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
494TH YR—45★3+3 2025
TYREEK MAJOROLPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
492ND YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROLIJAH HARDYLBRET
823RD YR90—UNR+21
STEPHEN DALEYDLRET
824TH YR9964★3+35
TYRIQUE TUCKERDLRET
674TH YR9664★3+1
ISAIAH JONESLBRET
664TH YR8881★3+23
MARIO LANDINODLRET
653RD YR8324★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
33
RET
10
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
WKU RUNNING BACKSn=690% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJAY ALLENRBTRUE FR
564TH YR8981★4+15
LE'KAMREN MEADOWSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR20—★3—
JADEN MCGILLRBRET
504TH YR3328★3+14
KALIB HICKSRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
443RD YR—28★3-54 2025
ADRION BOYDRBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457692%18%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
45
RET
31
DB
1OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYINDIANA DEFENSE
WKU PASS CATCHERSn=2169% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION TAYLORWRTRUE FR
503RD YR—64★3+15 2025
LOFTON HOWARDTERET
483RD YR32—UNR—
COLESON ARENDSTETRUE FR
463RD YR——UNR—
CC EZIRIMTEPORTAL · TOLEDO
464TH YR4345★3+13
CAMERON FLOWERSWRRET
452ND YR5850★3-12
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUAN SANKSDBTRUE FR
683RD YR8564★3+12
PRESTON ZACHMANDBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
564TH YR9864★3+24
JAMARI SHARPEDBRET
524TH YR9869★3-10
BYRON BALDWIN JR.DBRET
512ND YR3491★4—
JAYLEN BELLDBRET
502ND YR3769★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.3
50.0
— OFFENSE
41.0
63.3
— DEFENSE
37.6
36.7
SP+ OVERALL
-13.3
25.4
FPI
-13.9
25.3
ELO
1250
2132
TALENT
612
735
PRODUCTION
32
97
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+1
−47
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
OFF EFFICIENCY
61
98
DEF EFFICIENCY
88
96
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
46
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
15
FINISHING DRIVES
77
98
FIELD POSITION
69
21
TURNOVER MARGIN
31
100
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
PASS RATE
52.0%
31.1%
PACE
24.0s
34.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.6%
77.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.2%
47.2%
PLAYS / GAME
75.0
53.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
12.7%
6.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WKU, ORANGE = IU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE