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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›AKR @ MINN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
AKRON
MINNESOTA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP58|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
127FPI
AKRMACAKRON
1-1
12
7
19
92%
65
12
13.0
+1400
+23.5
HOME
—AP
74FPI
MINNB1GMINNESOTA
1-1
71
39
57
65%
54
80
36.5
-3200
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADMINN -23.5
IMPLIED — AKR13.0
IMPLIED — MINN36.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
38 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
38 / 56
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
AKR PACE26.5s
65
MINN PACE27.1s
54
SHARED PACE26.8s
59
PLAY VOLUME135
59
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
AKR43CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
61
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE61p
61
TEMPO65p
65
MINN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
8
PROE
87
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE8p
8
PROE87p
87
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
AKRRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.2
AKRON won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAKRONMINNESOTA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB97%Shammond CooperLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGage SummersLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin SpriggsPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB96%Ben FinleyQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Johnson Jr.QB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL66%Keylen DavisOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaasai KingOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenneth McManus IVOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB60%Malcom DeWalt IVDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah ReedPORTAL · UTAH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDiMarco JohnsonS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Julien LaventurePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBruno DallEDGE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKiawan MurphyPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE44%Israel PolkWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles WalkerWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob NewellTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBDwight Nunoo · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALDaunte Curtis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBReese Poffenbarger · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASSemaj Beals · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLNate Hampton · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Carlos Slayden · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSBrandon Smith · PORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDawayne Galloway Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAShamar McNeil · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIKhory Moss · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLVaughn Highland · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFKurtis Waye · PORTAL · CLARK ATLANTAREFILLED
WR/TEWyatt Hook · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMiles Burris · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEJaborree Riggins · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AKRON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.153 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.071 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.742 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3535371752 OF 5 GRADED
RB30304210064 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE353527501911 OF 19 GRADED
OL343418461910 OF 19 GRADED
DL515133431910 OF 19 GRADED
LB4242224106 OF 10 GRADED
DB404034802011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%45
RECRUITING CLASS#133 · 0/7 BC1
CLASS RANK TREND-32 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AKRJOE MOORHEAD5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
9696
EXPLOSIVENESS
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1919
HAVOC
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAKR OFFENSEMINN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAKRON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
124OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
35
RET
17
NATIONAL
73OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEMINNESOTA DEFENSE
AKR QUARTERBACKSn=583% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDEN ROGGOWQBRET
492ND YR2829★3+36
CIBASTIAN BROUGHTONQBRET
491ST YR3139★3+39
REESE POFFENBARGERQBPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
494TH YR—45★3—
SEMAJ BEALSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
JOHNNY BROOKHARTQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
6993%10%
SECONDARYDB
4968%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAKRON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
124OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
34
RET
46
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
AKR OFFENSIVE LINEn=1954% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE HAMPTONOLPORTAL · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)
521ST YR3617★3—
JONATHAN GOULDOLRET
521ST YR3042★3—
ALLEN JONES JR.OLRET
504TH YR669★3-34 2025
MAX MOBLEYOLRET
503RD YR23—UNR—
COLIN LYONSOLRET
504TH YR8414★2+7 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAVERICK BARANOWSKILBRET
754TH YR9740★3+17
SID KABADLPORTAL · MARSHALL
674TH YR4989★3—
NAQUAN CROWDERDLPORTAL · MARSHALL
634TH YR6064★3-3
XION CHAPMANDLPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
594TH YR—97★4+18 2025
KARTER MENZDLRET
584TH YR6772★3+50
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAKRON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
30
RET
100
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
AKR RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARQUESE WILLIAMSRBRET
493RD YR4145★3-48
TAVEN CURRYRBRET
494TH YR5025★3+25
JORDAN GANTRBRET
484TH YR8728★3-13
SEAN PATRICKRBRET
442ND YR5757★3+10
CHRIS GEERBRET
383RD YR—57★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456993%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAKRON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
35
RET
50
DB
85OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYMINNESOTA DEFENSE
AKR PASS CATCHERSn=1950% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCEL WILLIAMSWRRET
652ND YR77—★3+25
CONNER CRAVAACKTERET
633RD YR7624★3-18
KYAN MASONWRRET
582ND YR6548★3+35
WYATT HOOKTEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
522ND YR828★3—
LUKE SIVONWRRET
511ST YR256★2—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN NESTORDBRET
854TH YR8385★3-27
KERRY BROWNDBRET
694TH YR9568★3+25
RHYLAND KELLYDBRET
524TH YR2359★3—
AYDAN WESTDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
492ND YR6578★3-15
ZACK HARDENDBRET
492ND YR2069★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.6
51.1
— OFFENSE
53.3
60.0
— DEFENSE
36.0
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
-18.6
4.7
FPI
-15.8
-1.3
ELO
905
1452
TALENT
547
729
PRODUCTION
6
71
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
OFF EFFICIENCY
22
32
DEF EFFICIENCY
61
27
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
23
8
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
49
FINISHING DRIVES
12
54
FIELD POSITION
44
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
60
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
PASS RATE
51.5%
61.7%
PACE
26.5s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.9%
44.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.7%
78.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.9%
6.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AKR, ORANGE = MINN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE