SAT 19:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP40|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
2-1
56
64
49
21%
51
72
11.5
+1800
+28.5
HOME
27
3-0
96
87
88
51%
41
55
40.0
-5000
-28.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMSU10—ND27
CLOSED ND -28.5TOTAL 51.5MSU COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
MSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADND -28.5
IMPLIED — MSU11.5
IMPLIED — ND40.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGAN STATENOTRE DAME2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB88%Malcolm BellDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik SpencerDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmorion SmithPORTAL · TOLEDO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE81%Jack VellingTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmari KellyWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MarshPORTAL · INDIANA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL79%Alex VanSumerenPORTAL · USC · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThompsonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrady KellyDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB67%Makhi FrazierPORTAL · OLE MISS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah Tau-TolliverRB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB64%Wayne Matthews IIILB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius SnowPORTAL · TEXAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAisea MoaPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Matt GulbinDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CarterOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin BrosciousOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Aidan ChilesPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBTre Bell · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATECharles Brantley · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIBrayden Thomas · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKK Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMESamson Gash · SIGNEE ★4Joey Caudill · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLTrey Lisle · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEEli Coenen · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISCory House · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaziun Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAREFILLED
LBKenny Soares Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEAdam Shaw · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBen Murawski · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNCollin Campbell · SIGNEE ★4Eli Bickel · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBKayd Coffman · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
18.97 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
16.112 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
20.511 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB46467410051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838640114 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE52525280239 OF 23 GRADED
OL41416743168 OF 16 GRADED
DL48486043199 OF 19 GRADED
LB4444777594 OF 9 GRADED
DB60604820236 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE56th56
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#45 · 5/22 BC67
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 28 IN / 46 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSU OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE MSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE MSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1657% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE MSU RUNNING BACKSn=11100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557059%50%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE MSU PASS CATCHERSn=2320% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.4%
57.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.0%
55.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSU, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE