SAT 23:00 ET|ROSE BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
1-2
61
70
56
48%
81
85
19.3
+440
+14.0
HOME
52
3-0
82
56
55
57%
51
60
33.3
-600
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALPUR38—UCLA52
CLOSED UCLA -14.0TOTAL 52.5SPREAD PUSHED · 90 POINTS · OVER
PUR
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UCLA
PUR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UCLA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADUCLA -14.0
IMPLIED — PUR19.3
IMPLIED — UCLA33.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCLARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UCLA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPURDUEUCLA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Nitro TugglePORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Jackson IIIWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ Horton Jr.WR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB72%Devin MockobeeRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ThomasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB64%Tahj Ra-ElDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony GrimesDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles SlusherDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Mani PowellLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex Sanford Jr.PORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL52%CJ Nunnally IVDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemeco KennedyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarrion HarklessDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Bakyne ColyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen St. JohnOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank PurvisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB16%Malachi SingletonPORTAL · APP STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEAsaad Waseem · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICAr'Mari Towns · SIGNEE ★3Cooper McCutchan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJerrick Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTravis Terrell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEIzaiah Wright · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJaden Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANDon Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHRaderrion Daniels · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJojo Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISPARTIAL
DLElo Modozie · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIACurt Neal · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISRodney Lora · PORTAL ★3 · UCF3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBoaz Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJatavius Shivers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINABrock Brownfield · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBCorin Berry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PURDUE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.240 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.328 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.053 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464618252 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545601264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE474767422414 OF 24 GRADED
OL595956262010 OF 20 GRADED
DL585862402311 OF 23 GRADED
LB72724945106 OF 10 GRADED
DB55555419258 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 0/21 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-26 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCLABOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPUR OFFENSEUCLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPURDUE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCLA DEFENSE PUR QUARTERBACKSn=518% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPURDUE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE PUR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2074% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPURDUE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE PUR RUNNING BACKSn=688% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552919%18%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453559%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPURDUE OFFENSESECONDARYUCLA DEFENSE PUR PASS CATCHERSn=2458% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+22
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PUR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.1%
68.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.1%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PUR, ORANGE = UCLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE