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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›EMU @ WIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
EASTERN MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:30 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP53|O/U44.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
133FPI
EMUMACEASTERN MICHIGAN
1-2
26
37
1
72%
35
7
10.5
+1200
+23.5
HOME
—AP
56FPI
WISB1GWISCONSIN
1-1
79
29
81
31%
17
64
34.0
-2400
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADWIS -23.5
IMPLIED — EMU10.5
IMPLIED — WIS34.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
53 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
42 / 56
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
EMU PACE29.0s
35
WIS PACE31.9s
17
SHARED PACE30.4s
26
PLAY VOLUME119
26
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
EMU34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
50
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE50p
50
TEMPO35p
35
WIS38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
12
TEMPO
17
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE12p
12
TEMPO17p
17
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
EMURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
EASTERN MICHIGAN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREASTERN MICHIGANWISCONSIN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB93%Dontae McMillanRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTavierre DunlapRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL70%Everett SmallOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOwen SnivelyOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMickey RewolinskiOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Donovan GreenDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrell MartinDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling MilesPORTAL · UTEP · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE37%Porter RooksWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamarien WheelerWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry Lockett Jr.WR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB34%Andrew MarshallLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarco PatiernoPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB34%Joshua ScottPORTAL · NEVADA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrelle DeenerDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBraydon Bennett · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHNazir Jones-Davis · SIGNEE ★3Decorie Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTyler Brumfield · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECole Dellinger · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATETyler McMillan · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLRJ Alphonse · SIGNEE ★3Kijon Braxton · SIGNEE ★3Brandon Simmons Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECarl Jean-Bart · SIGNEE ★3Nathan Piggott · SIGNEE ★3Shawn Fishwick · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBFa'Rel Carter · SIGNEE ★3Horace Glenn III · SIGNEE ★3Aaron Kearse · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EASTERN MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.990 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.763 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.394 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB51511710051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454493173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE40405993239 OF 23 GRADED
OL444430152110 OF 21 GRADED
DL282842772214 OF 22 GRADED
LB30301394114 OF 11 GRADED
DB39395781209 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#106 · 0/30 BC21
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HAVOC
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
EMUCHRIS CREIGHTON11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
5757
EXPLOSIVENESS
1111
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESEMU OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
51
RET
100
NATIONAL
54OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE
EMU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH KIMQBRET
484TH YR8717★3-25
BROGAN MCCAUGHEYQBPORTAL · YALE
374TH YR—17★3—
JACE STUCKEYQBRET
353RD YR—42★3—
NICK KINSEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
BRYCE BUTTONQBRET
352ND YR—40★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS48% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
7589%36%
SECONDARYDB
4840%21%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
44
RET
15
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
6OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
EMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2185% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLE POWELLOLRET
422ND YR723★3—
NICHOLAS GALLEGOSOLRET
544TH YR76—UNR+25
COLE DELLINGEROLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
524TH YR4328★3—
TYLER MCMILLANOLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
524TH YR4328★3—
GUZZY KAYEDOLPORTAL · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)
493RD YR4317★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON POSALBRET
662ND YR6492★4+18
CHARLES PERKINSDLRET
524TH YR3785★3—
MICHEAL GARNERLBRET
524TH YR3085★3—
NICOLAS CLAYTONLBRET
522ND YR2092★4—
COOPER CATALANOLBRET
512ND YR6473★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
54
RET
31
DL
8OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
6OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE
EMU RUNNING BACKSn=769% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDON BENNETTRBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
614TH YR9228★3+23
AMAREON BLUERBRET
542ND YR3659★3+30
JOEY MATTORDRBRET
494TH YR47—UNR+17
MALACHI JAMESRBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
433RD YR—17★3—
DECORIE JOHNSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557350%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457589%36%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEASTERN MICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
40
RET
93
DB
93OF 138
DB RET
40
SECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE
EMU PASS CATCHERSn=237% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAROLD MACKWRRET
542ND YR6068★3+26
NICK DEVEREAUXWRRET
514TH YR80—UNR+14
TANNER LEMASTERTERET
504TH YR2554★3—
QUINN FRACASSIWRTRUE FR
474TH YR——UNR—
JOSHUA LONGTERET
463RD YR81—UNR-10
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM60% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARVIN BURKS JR.SPORTAL · MISSOURI
704TH YR9678★3+1
MATTHEW JUNGSRET
504TH YR78—UNR+20
JAVAN ROBINSONCBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
504TH YR9864★3-33
CAI BATESCBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
492ND YR—64★3—
BRYCE WESTCBPORTAL · OHIO STATE
482ND YR4564★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
40.8
— OFFENSE
47.8
39.9
— DEFENSE
39.1
41.6
SP+ OVERALL
-15.6
1.9
FPI
-17.9
2.6
ELO
1293
1455
TALENT
581
768
PRODUCTION
12
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
+20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
53
11
DEF EFFICIENCY
25
16
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
25
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
93
FINISHING DRIVES
60
1
FIELD POSITION
100
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
22
2
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
EMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
PASS RATE
59.7%
46.9%
PACE
29.0s
31.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
48.4%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.7%
57.9%
PLAYS / GAME
62.0
56.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = EMU, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE