SAT 18:00 ET|FAU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U62.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 10
1-2
35
13
27
32%
94
4
29.0
+170
+4.5
HOME
16
2-1
29
49
18
68%
96
35
33.5
-205
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALFIU10—FAU16
CLOSED FAU -5.0TOTAL 62.0FAU COVERED · 26 POINTS · UNDER
FIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FAU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADFAU -4.5
IMPLIED — FIU29.0
IMPLIED — FAU33.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALFLORIDA ATLANTIC2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Keyone JenkinsPORTAL · UCF · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe PesanskyQB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Mister ClarkPORTAL · PURDUE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJessiah McGrewPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce Blades IIPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL69%Jaleel DavisOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim BuchanonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius PierceOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Keegan DavisDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuaylen HillDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOlasunkonmi AgunloyeDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Dallas PayneTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PerryWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin CayenneTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Kejon OwensRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Johnny Chaney Jr.LB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJJ Kohl · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDJ Alexander · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDeAndre Boykins · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEWesley Miller · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAVontae Floyd · PORTAL ★3 · DUKE7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLRiley Wilson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJamorie Flagg · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATERJ Moss Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAMichael Smarts · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBarrett Schulz · SIGNEE ★3Malik Penson · SIGNEE ★3Ayden Passley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJayden Ford · SIGNEE ★3Justin Compere · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDemitris Mincey · SIGNEE ★3De'Andre Arnold · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.044 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.550 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.346 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565664061 OF 6 GRADED
RB26267310062 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4040365421CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414145019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL43434733197 OF 19 GRADED
LB3737473894 OF 9 GRADED
DB52523130198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE35th35
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%39
RECRUITING CLASS#102 · 0/20 BC24
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 16 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FAUZACH KITTLEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FIUWILLIE SIMMONS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFIU OFFENSEFAU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE FIU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE FIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-7n=22 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE FIU RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 22 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554479%8%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE FIU PASS CATCHERSn=2146% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU SECONDARYn=33 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.0%
49.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.5%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FIU, ORANGE = FAU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE