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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›FSU @ ALA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA STATE
ALABAMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U50.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
37FPI
FSUACCFLORIDA STATE
1-1
85
96
58
40%
54
84
15.5
+800
+19.5
HOME
#12AP
7FPI
ALASECALABAMA
2-0
98
77
85
26%
75
99
35.0
-1350
-19.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADALA -19.5
IMPLIED — FSU15.5
IMPLIED — ALA35.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
33 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
9 / 56
DISAGREEMENT24 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 24 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
FSU PACE27.1s
54
ALA PACE25.7s
75
SHARED PACE26.4s
65
PLAY VOLUME137
65
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FSU52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
21
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE21p
21
TEMPO54p
54
ALA64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
94
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE94p
94
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA STATEALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB94%Tommy CastellanosPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL94%Luke PetitbonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunnar HansenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdrian MedleyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB69%Gavin SawchukPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin LucasPORTAL · TULANE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoydell WilliamsRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Jeremiah WilsonDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEarl Little Jr.PORTAL · OHIO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin JosephPORTAL · OLE MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Randy PittmanPORTAL · SMU · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawayne McCoyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarkeston DouglasTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Justin CryerPORTAL · TEXAS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah HerringLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStefon ThompsonLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL53%Darrell Jackson Jr.DRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayson JenkinsPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames WilliamsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJaden O'Neal · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLXavier Chaplin · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNNikau Hepi · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBQuintrevion Wisner · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASAmari Thomas · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DBChuck Kennon · SIGNEE ★4Tre Bell III · SIGNEE ★4Jordan Crutchfield · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJasen Lopez · SIGNEE ★4Xavier Tiller · SIGNEE ★4Devin Carter · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMikai Gbayor · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAIzayia Williams · SIGNEE ★4Karon Maycock · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLEarnest Rankins · SIGNEE ★4Jaemin Pinckney · SIGNEE ★4Franklin Whitley · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.533 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
20.918 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.253 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB646464061 OF 6 GRADED
RB6969937763 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE55557875217 OF 21 GRADED
OL59597520185 OF 18 GRADED
DL57578766179 OF 17 GRADED
LB58587439146 OF 14 GRADED
DB585883572010 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO35%84
RECRUITING CLASS#16 · 12/30 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 22 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFSU OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
64
RET
0
NATIONAL
10OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE
FSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASHTON DANIELSQBPORTAL · AUBURN
534TH YR9264★3-28
KEVIN SPERRYQBRET
521ST YR—86★4—
DEAN DENOBILEQBPORTAL · LAFAYETTE
374TH YR—17★3—
MALACHI MARSHALLQBTRUE FR
353RD YR—22★3—
MICHAEL GRANTQBRET
323RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
6560%59%
SECONDARYDB
6890%52%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
59
RET
20
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
FSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1880% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER CHAPLINOLPORTAL · AUBURN
784TH YR9997★4+5
BRADYN WELCH-JOINEROLTRUE FR
553RD YR8864★3—
CHIMDIA NWAIWUOLPORTAL · STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
523RD YR4278★3—
JONATHAN DANIELSOLRET
522ND YR—93★4—
JAYDEN TODDOLRET
522ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YHONZAE PIERRELBRET
704TH YR8299★5+10 2025
LONDON SIMMONSDLRET
702ND YR5783★3-36
DEVAN THOMPKINSDLPORTAL · USC
604TH YR8899★4-7
ISAIA FAGADLRET
553RD YR4783★3—
STEVE BOLO MBOUMOUADLRET
523RD YR2688★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
12OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
69
RET
77
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
FSU RUNNING BACKSn=623% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OUSMANE KROMAHRBRET
622ND YR6097★4+21
QUINTREVION WISNERRBPORTAL · TEXAS
564TH YR9898★4-20
ZAY PARKSRBRET
522ND YR——UNR+30 2025
SAMUEL SINGLETON JR.RBRET
493RD YR6186★4+21
GEMARI SANDSRBPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
483RD YR—64★3+13 2025
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456560%59%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
48OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
55
RET
75
DB
7OF 138
DB RET
90
SECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE
FSU PASS CATCHERSn=2125% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUCE ROBINSONWRRET
874TH YR96100★4+17
DESIRRIO RILESTEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
824TH YR8064★3+11
MICAHI DANZYWRRET
592ND YR7491★4+23
LANDEN THOMASTERET
503RD YR5545★3+12
JASEN LOPEZWRTRUE FR
491ST YR1492★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAY HUBBARDDBRET
914TH YR9588★4+24
ZABIEN BROWNDBRET
713RD YR9799★5+5
KEON SABBDBRET
594TH YR9997★4+7
DRE KIRKPATRICK JR.DBRET
523RD YR3873★3—
IVAN TAYLORDBRET
512ND YR3797★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.1
53.1
— OFFENSE
57.7
58.7
— DEFENSE
38.6
47.6
SP+ OVERALL
7.7
21.2
FPI
7.7
23.2
ELO
1557
1859
TALENT
800
974
PRODUCTION
75
91
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.35
0.63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
OFF EFFICIENCY
88
60
DEF EFFICIENCY
59
84
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
65
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
76
52
FINISHING DRIVES
63
78
FIELD POSITION
52
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
51
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
PASS RATE
40.6%
40.7%
PACE
27.1s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.4%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.7%
65.6%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FSU, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE