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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›UGA @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/U54.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#2AP
4FPI
UGASECGEORGIA
2-0
100
73
92
69%
21
92
39.5
-2800
-24.5
HOME
—AP
77FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-1
74
99
36
14%
96
93
15.0
+1300
+24.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADUGA -24.5
IMPLIED — UGA39.5
IMPLIED — ARK15.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
68FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
16 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
6 / 56
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
UGA PACE31.0s
21
ARK PACE22.9s
96
SHARED PACE27.0s
59
PLAY VOLUME137
59
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UGA46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
86
PROE
32
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE86p
86
PROE32p
32
TEMPO21p
21
ARK61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
63
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE63p
63
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.0
GEORGIA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIAARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE62%Oscar DelpDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZachariah BranchDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillon BellWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Daylen EveretteDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoenel AgueroPORTAL · OLE MISS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaCorey ThomasDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL42%Christen MillerDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXzavier McLeodDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElo ModozieDE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Monroe FreelingDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah MorrisDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Cash JonesRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh McCrayRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB20%CJ AllenDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIsiah Canion · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA TECHKaiden Prothro · SIGNEE ★4Craig Dandridge · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCaden Harris · SIGNEE ★4Justice Fitzpatrick · SIGNEE ★4Jordan Smith · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAmaris Williams · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNPJ Dean · SIGNEE ★4Valdin Sone · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLEkene Ogboko · SIGNEE ★5Tyreek Jemison · SIGNEE ★4Graham Houston · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBDante Dowdell · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYJae Lamar · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBElijah Littlejohn · SIGNEE ★4Nick Abrams II · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.496 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.691 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.994 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8181949174 OF 7 GRADED
RB5858929295 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE717192692821 OF 28 GRADED
OL747487732114 OF 21 GRADED
DL484888721615 OF 16 GRADED
LB545489671715 OF 17 GRADED
DB636387362118 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE100th100
BLUE-CHIP RATIO77%100
RECRUITING CLASS#6 · 23/32 BC96
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 9 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UGAKIRBY SMART11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
PACE
8080
PASS RATE
5252
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HAVOC
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUGA OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
81
RET
91
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
UGA QUARTERBACKSn=79% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GUNNER STOCKTONQBRET
714TH YR8096★4+29
RYAN PUGLISIQBRET
493RD YR2996★4-33
RYAN MONTGOMERYQBRET
482ND YR295★4—
HEZEKIAH MILLENDERQBRET
402ND YR—76★3—
BRYSON BEAVERQBPORTAL · OREGON
481ST YR—95★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
74
RET
73
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
UGA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2127% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DREW BOBOOLRET
764TH YR—75★3+48 2025
DONTRELL GLOVEROLRET
702ND YR—88★4+32 2025
EARNEST GREENE IIIOLRET
614TH YR—99★4-13 2025
EKENE OGBOKOOLTRUE FR
521ST YR—99★5—
CORTEZ SMITHOLRET
522ND YR—94★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
58
RET
92
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
UGA RUNNING BACKSn=98% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAUNCEY BOWENSRBRET
643RD YR6992★4-7
NATE FRAZIERRBRET
623RD YR9698★4+9
DWIGHT PHILLIPS JR.RBRET
553RD YR4691★4+23
JAE LAMARRBTRUE FR
501ST YR—92★4—
BO WALKERRBRET
492ND YR3588★4-12
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
71
RET
69
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
UGA PASS CATCHERSn=2831% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELYISS WILLIAMSTERET
572ND YR2999★5—
CRAIG DANDRIDGEWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—97★4—
JEREMY BELLWRRET
523RD YR161★3—
TYLER J. WILLIAMSWRRET
522ND YR—95★4—
LONDON HUMPHREYSWRRET
524TH YR—99★4+32 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.5
48.6
— OFFENSE
69.4
49.4
— DEFENSE
45.5
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
29.3
1.5
FPI
26.6
-1.7
ELO
1948
1490
TALENT
1004
745
PRODUCTION
98
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.77
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
87
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
73
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
10
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
34
FINISHING DRIVES
97
79
FIELD POSITION
46
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
67
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UGA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
50.0%
56.7%
PACE
31.0s
22.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.0%
55.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
75.4%
PLAYS / GAME
58.0
78.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.6%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UGA, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE