SAT 19:30 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (NORMAN, OK)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP69|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
2-1
19
41
39
58%
48
31
12.0
+1100
+21.5
HOME
14
2-1
88
35
100
63%
15
99
33.5
-2100
-21.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNM6—OU14
CLOSED OU -21.5TOTAL 45.5UNM COVERED · 20 POINTS · UNDER
UNM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADOU -21.5
IMPLIED — UNM12.0
IMPLIED — OU33.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
30FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNMRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
NEW MEXICO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICOOKLAHOMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB77%Damon BankstonRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. McKinneyPORTAL · TULSA · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE52%Dorian ThomasPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeagan JohnsonWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael BuckleyWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Keyshawn James-NewbyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabriel LopezDT · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKy'won McCrayDT · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Jon JohnsonCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb ColemanS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL30%Richard PearceOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsrael MukwizaOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah SillemonOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJerod Terry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETroy Omeire · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJoey Olsen · PORTAL ★3 · USCBear Tenney · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBrody Litton · SIGNEE ★3Walter Moore · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBOrmanie Arnold · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAzari Warren · SIGNEE ★3Xavier Rivera-Rogers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLTy Gates · SIGNEE ★3Sebastian Dawkins · SIGNEE ★3Danzel Newell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.778 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.392 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383817562 OF 6 GRADED
RB4646764664 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4343322224CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363617019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL666630832010 OF 20 GRADED
LB57574587103 OF 10 GRADED
DB515125822310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE19th19
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%20
RECRUITING CLASS#87 · 0/26 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND+114 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OUBRENT VENABLES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNMJASON ECK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNM OFFENSEOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA DEFENSE UNM QUARTERBACKSn=695% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE UNM OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE UNM RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558474%47%LINEBACKERSLB
0.458775%33%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO OFFENSESECONDARYOKLAHOMA DEFENSE UNM PASS CATCHERSn=2478% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−38
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.3%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS48.2%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.1%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNM, ORANGE = OU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE