SAT 19:45 ET|NEYLAND STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP88|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
1-2
4
30
7
6%
54
8
12.5
+2200
+35.5
HOME
42
3-0
91
94
27
35%
66
91
48.0
-8000
-35.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALKENN9—TENN42
CLOSED TENN -35.5TOTAL 60.5KENN COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
KENN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TENN
KENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TENN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADTENN -35.5
IMPLIED — KENN12.5
IMPLIED — TENN48.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
71FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KENNRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs7.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.0
KENNESAW STATE won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENNESAW STATETENNESSEE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Amari OdomPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDexter Williams IIPORTAL · TULSA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Coleman BennettRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase BelcherRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlexander DiggsRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB65%JeRico Washington Jr.PORTAL · BOISE STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb OffordDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMilon JonesDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Gabriel BenyardWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MossWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClayton Coppock Jr.PORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Brandon BestOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosiah ChenaultOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJT PenningtonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Tylon DunlapDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoderick DanielsDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam WatkinsDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB25%Garland BenyardLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden KellyPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
RBLatrelle Murrell · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIACelley Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTony Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UCFLuke Evans · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)Perry Fisher · PORTAL ★3 · UAB3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEBrayden Munroe · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOZion Booker · PORTAL ★3 · TULSADylan Gary · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLLuke Duska · PORTAL ★3 · ELONMateo Guevara · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEPrecious Ekeh · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUT1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKai Russell · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATECorey Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORZakir Abdul-Salaam · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBAlfred Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONJecari Bryson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBOmari Stephenson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENNESAW STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.834 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
11.56 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.761 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB464691053 OF 5 GRADED
RB626218074 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE444441432013 OF 20 GRADED
OL454535311911 OF 19 GRADED
DL525221601413 OF 14 GRADED
LB434327371614 OF 16 GRADED
DB515135472214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE4th4
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%49
RECRUITING CLASS#120 · 0/13 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TENNJOSH HEUPEL6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KENNJERRY MACK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKENN OFFENSETENN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENNESAW STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETENNESSEE DEFENSE KENN QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENNESAW STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE KENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1969% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENNESAW STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE KENN RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556955%64%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455975%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENNESAW STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTENNESSEE DEFENSE KENN PASS CATCHERSn=2057% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.9%
64.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.7%
42.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.0%
3.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KENN, ORANGE = TENN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE