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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 3›NIU @ ARIZ›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
NCSU @ VAN83
JMU @ SDSU81
UNT @ TXST75
HOU @ TTU73
FLA @ AUB71
WKU @ IU68
MIA @ WAKE67
LSU @ MISS66
TROY @ MIZ65
WYO @ CMU65
USC @ RUTG65
KENT @ OSU64
BYU @ CSU64
UNC @ CLEM63
SMU @ LOU63
M-OH @ CIN62
UK @ TA&M61
SYR @ PITT60
BUF @ PSU60
UTEP @ MICH60
MSST @ SC60
MSU @ ND60
ARST @ TCU60
NIU @ ARIZ60
TEM @ TOL59
LT @ BAY59
GAST @ UCF58
VT @ MD58
WVU @ UVA58
ASU @ KU57
ECU @ ODU57
CONN @ USM57
UGA @ ARK56
BGSU @ ISU55
COLO @ NU55
FSU @ ALA54
OHIO @ USA54
KENN @ TENN54
USU @ UTAH53
WMU @ RICE52
UNM @ OU52
UTSA @ TEX51
GASO @ JXST49
UAB @ UL49
CCU @ DEL48
TULN @ KSU48
EMU @ WIS48
STAN @ DUKE47
PUR @ UCLA45
AKR @ MINN44
FIU @ FAU42
NEV @ MTSU42
FRES @ SJSU42
MRSH @ MOST40
CLT @ APP26
BALL @ LIB24
NDSU @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
ARIZONA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:30 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP53|O/U50.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
132FPI
NIUMWCNORTHERN ILLINOIS
0-2
9
3
26
44%
24
28
8.5
+2000
+33.5
HOME
—AP
43FPI
ARIZB12ARIZONA
1-1
61
68
90
65%
42
66
42.0
-6500
-33.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADARIZ -33.5
IMPLIED — NIU8.5
IMPLIED — ARIZ42.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
35 / 57
BY ENVIRONMENT
43 / 56
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
NIU PACE30.5s
24
ARIZ PACE27.9s
42
SHARED PACE29.2s
33
PLAY VOLUME124
33
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NIU10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
3
TEMPO
24
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE3p
3
TEMPO24p
24
ARIZ41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
76
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE76p
76
TEMPO42p
42
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISARIZONA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB93%Quinn UrwilerLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFilip MaciorowskiPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarc PrettoPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Jasper BeelerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FinleyPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMuhammed JammehS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Mark HensleyPORTAL · MISSOURI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoy WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalonnie WilliamsDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Evan MalcoreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbiathar CurryOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan TweedyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Chavon WrightRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLazaro RogersPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB57%Josh HolstPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE49%Jake ApplegetPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Givens IIIPORTAL · NEVADA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRoss Ogden · SIGNEE ★3Jack Murray · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSE COLLEGETyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSEAvery Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJvon Hatcher · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Hassett · SIGNEE ★3Terry Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrendan Alexander · SIGNEE ★3Cian Mahoney · SIGNEE ★3Brendan Grabot · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaiduan Cranford · SIGNEE ★3Da'sean Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTaron Dickens · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINABryshawn Brown · SIGNEE ★3Asa Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBraylon Agee · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Green · SIGNEE ★3Zaire McKinney · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.78 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.857 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.86 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444374672 OF 7 GRADED
RB6161267774 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE222235802210 OF 22 GRADED
OL36362440206 OF 20 GRADED
DL222227612313 OF 23 GRADED
LB3939—7105 OF 10 GRADED
DB494931281912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#82 · 0/27 BC39
CLASS RANK TREND+17 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
8585
EXPLOSIVENESS
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSEARIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
44
RET
46
NATIONAL
19OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA DEFENSE
NIU QUARTERBACKSn=754% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN MACONQBRET
534TH YR4128★3-50
TARON DICKENSQBPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
483RD YR2345★3—
BRADY DAVIDSONQBRET
402ND YR—32★3-56 2025
BRYSHAWN BROWNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
ASA JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4564%6%
SECONDARYDB
5742%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
36
RET
40
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOGAN GROSSOLRET
502ND YR—17★3—
TYLER CHAMBERSOLRET
501ST YR—18★3—
LUKE SKARTVEDTOLRET
493RD YR—18★3—
BEN GUSTAFSONOLRET
492ND YR—53★3—
LANDON HRONOLRET
493RD YR—17★3+41 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DOMINIC LOLESIODLRET
654TH YR—45★3-17 2025
TAYE BROWNLBRET
604TH YR9852★3+2
TRE SMITHDLRET
574TH YR9789★3+21
JULIAN SAVAIINAEADLRET
554TH YR5577★3—
KAISI LAFITAGADLTRUE FR
521ST YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
26
PERF
61
RET
77
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
NIU RUNNING BACKSn=723% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PORTERRBRET
522ND YR309★2+30 2025
TELLY JOHNSON JR.RBRET
503RD YR8925★3-11
TRISTON WHITERBRET
501ST YR532★3—
JAIDAUN CRANFORDRBTRUE FR
411ST YR559★3—
DA'SEAN HOWARDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—41★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454564%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
22
RET
80
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYARIZONA DEFENSE
NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2220% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM THOMPSONWRTRUE FR
574TH YR7764★3+16
DEAREE ROGERSWRRET
564TH YR7364★3+12
KELAN MCINERNEYWRTRUE FR
522ND YR—1★2—
GLEN WEBERTETRUE FR
513RD YR——UNR—
JASON FOWLERTERET
482ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAY'VION COLECBRET
594TH YR9345★3-11
DWIGHT BOOTLE IICBPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
574TH YR7145★3-33
MALCOLM HARTZOG JR.STRUE FR
544TH YR9964★3-27
JOHNO PRICESRET
514TH YR449★2—
CAM CHAPASPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
503RD YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
50.5
— OFFENSE
42.6
60.0
— DEFENSE
44.5
41.0
SP+ OVERALL
-16.9
10.3
FPI
-17.9
6.0
ELO
1245
1608
TALENT
537
700
PRODUCTION
11
78
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
OFF EFFICIENCY
4
52
DEF EFFICIENCY
20
81
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
51
62
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
82
71
FINISHING DRIVES
18
36
FIELD POSITION
87
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
44
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
PASS RATE
51.7%
54.3%
PACE
30.5s
27.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.7%
48.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
81.1%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
59.0
64.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = ARIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE