SAT 19:30 ET|LANNY AND SHARON MARTIN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
2-1
72
46
62
14%
64
79
22.0
+145
+3.5
HOME
41
2-0
57
56
59
89%
33
69
25.5
-175
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCOLO7—NU41
CLOSED NU -3.5TOTAL 47.5NU COVERED · 48 POINTS · OVER
COLO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADNU -3.5
IMPLIED — COLO22.0
IMPLIED — NU25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
COLORECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.6
COLORADO won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOLORADONORTHWESTERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB100%Reginald HughesLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah BrownLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartavius FrenchLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL94%Arden WalkerDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeaten WadeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnquin Barnes Jr.DT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION12 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB85%Preston HodgeCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ McKinneyPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTawfiq ByardPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL78%Zarian McGillOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZylon CrislerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HillOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB74%Kaidon SalterQB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan StaubPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE48%Sincere BrownWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmarion MillerPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDre'lon MillerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB43%Dallan HaydenPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon PriceRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBLiona Lefau · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASCarson Crawford · SIGNEE ★4Rodney Colton Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLToby Anene · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATESedrick Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDSantana Hopper · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEPARTIAL
DBBoo Carter · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEECree Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEJason Stokes Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLeon Bell · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIABo Hughley · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJayven Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBKaneal Sweetwyne · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDeAndre Moore Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASDanny Scudero · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEErnest Campbell · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLORADO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
16.86 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
30.733 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB58589810041 OF 4 GRADED
RB38386353105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE525274192110 OF 21 GRADED
OL52527721177 OF 17 GRADED
DL494968131710 OF 17 GRADED
LB474756093 OF 9 GRADED
DB5050708206 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO35%84
RECRUITING CLASS#67 · 2/14 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 42 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
COLODEION SANDERS4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCOLO OFFENSENU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLORADO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHWESTERN DEFENSE COLO QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLORADO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE COLO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1779% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLORADO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE COLO RUNNING BACKSn=1047% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555270%4%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454148%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLORADO OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHWESTERN DEFENSE COLO PASS CATCHERSn=2181% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+24
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
65.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS50.0%
46.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.0%
4.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = COLO, ORANGE = NU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE