SAT 13:00 ET|KELLY/SHORTS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U39.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
1-2
8
4
77
23%
5
40
20.5
-122
-1.5
HOME
24
2-1
9
11
24
54%
12
19
19.0
+102
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWYO10—CMU24
CLOSED WYO -1.5TOTAL 39.5CMU COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
WYO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL39.5
SPREADWYO -1.5
IMPLIED — WYO20.5
IMPLIED — CMU19.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
25FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WYORECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
WYOMING won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWYOMINGCENTRAL MICHIGAN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Kaden AndersonPORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB82%Brayden JohnsonLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan EllerLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEnock SibomanaLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL78%Tyce WestlandDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen FlorentineNT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLucas SamsulaPORTAL · UTAH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%John Michael GyllenborgTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan SvobodaTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen SargentWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB64%Sam ScottRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerron KellmanPORTAL · LIBERTY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax WhiteRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB61%Tyrese BossPORTAL · ARIZONA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew JohnsonS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDainsus MillerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Jack WalshC · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden BarnettG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWes KingOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTyler Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · WILLIAM & MARYTaylor Hasselbeck · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJa'Quan Redfern · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEDante Bruley · SIGNEE ★3Mason Wright · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEJustin Popovich · PORTAL ★3 · LOCK HAVENJustin Popovich · PORTAL ★3 · LOCK HAVEN UNIVERSITYColin Ford · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMarkell Holman · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN ILLINOISDiore Hubbard · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAREFILLED
DBTravis Franklin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEDa'Marion Brownlee · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATETherman Williams · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJeremiah Katt · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONAChandler Donaway · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MJonathan Pearcy · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WYOMING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
27.519 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
26.025 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.619 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB424266051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3939416484 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE323231692210 OF 22 GRADED
OL39393077206 OF 20 GRADED
DL333320512211 OF 22 GRADED
LB3434299895 OF 9 GRADED
DB48484572209 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE8th8
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%9
RECRUITING CLASS#114 · 0/22 BC15
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 19 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CMUMATT DRINKALL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WYOJAY SAWVEL3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWYO OFFENSECMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWYOMING OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE WYO QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE WYO OFFENSIVE LINEn=2023% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS62% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE WYO RUNNING BACKSn=836% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS64% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554458%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWYOMING OFFENSESECONDARYCENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE WYO PASS CATCHERSn=2231% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−21
−11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.6%
81.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS44.7%
46.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WYO, ORANGE = CMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE