SAT 16:00 ET|MCLANE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP59|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
19
1-2
10
12
19
64%
31
20
15.5
+800
+19.5
HOME
36
2-1
69
80
74
60%
99
72
35.0
-1350
-19.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALLT19—BAY36
CLOSED BAY -19.5TOTAL 50.5LT COVERED · 55 POINTS · OVER
LT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADBAY -19.5
IMPLIED — LT15.5
IMPLIED — BAY35.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT23 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 23 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 57 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
LOUISIANA TECH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANA TECHBAYLOR2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB79%Clay TheveninPORTAL · RUTGERS · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmiri WigginsPORTAL · MCNEESE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB75%Jacob FieldsS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJhamal Shelby Jr.PORTAL · NICHOLLS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakari FosterDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Jayden MadkinsPORTAL · TULSA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion NasonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian DavisPORTAL · SMU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Mekhi MasonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSifa LeotaLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL47%Landon NelsonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan DenisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrett CanisOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE35%Devin GandyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlion JacksonPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Singleton Jr.WR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB15%Evan BullockQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJaden Miller · PORTAL ★3 · KEISER (FL)Demarcus Belton · SIGNEE ★3Kenny Thomas · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBDemario Bookhart · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA STATETy Jones · PORTAL ★3 · NORFOLK STATEAhkhari Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoshua Brantley · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEZa'qwaun Nunn · SIGNEE ★3Amari Wilks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBAyden Combs · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Smith · SIGNEE ★3Grayson Hardy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLTye Hylton · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETalyn Shettron · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEMarcus Calwise Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN KENTUCKYWilliam Mayes · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBBrady Vodicka · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.863 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.385 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.143 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464419063 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858452195 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE515152692011 OF 20 GRADED
OL474741551813 OF 18 GRADED
DL252562661410 OF 14 GRADED
LB52524877139 OF 13 GRADED
DB484831492216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE10th10
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#99 · 0/20 BC26
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LTSONNY CUMBIE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLT OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE LT QUARTERBACKSn=610% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE LT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1845% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS52% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE LT RUNNING BACKSn=979% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554326%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453182%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE LT PASS CATCHERSn=2031% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM54% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
+12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.2%
60.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.6%
72.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.8%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LT, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE