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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›NAVY @ UAB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NAVY
UAB
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:00 ET|PROTECTIVE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
89FPI
NAVYAACNAVY
1-1
0
83
29
14%
54
50
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
125FPI
UABAACUAB
1-1
34
52
10
80%
84
37
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NAVY34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
2
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE2p
2
TEMPO54p
54
UAB58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
64
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE64p
64
TEMPO84p
84
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NAVYRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
NAVY won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UABRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
UAB won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNAVYUAB2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Alex TeczaRB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane ReynoldsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB87%Blake HorvathQB · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL66%Landon RobinsonDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulien MoutomeDE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendall WhitesideDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Luke PirrisLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxson CampbellLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam KlenkLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Eli HeidenreichDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ChatmanWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody HowardTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%Ben PurvisG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin AcevedoOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB22%Justin RossPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew DuhartCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAdrian Symalla · SIGNEE ★3Brody Gish · SIGNEEPARTIAL
QBDeuce Jefferson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLIan Campbell · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Stephens · SIGNEETy Sagaser · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBSmoltz Lilly · SIGNEERashad Fortune · SIGNEEPARTIAL
WR/TEKaden Glover · SIGNEE ★3Alex Rodriguez · SIGNEESean Kerr · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLAlexander Brewer · SIGNEE ★3Kyle Lucas · SIGNEE ★3JoJo LoDuca · SIGNEE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKaden Olson · SIGNEE ★3Tre'Von Williams · SIGNEE ★3Darren Jackson · SIGNEE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NAVY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.589 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.779 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.389 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB62623510091 OF 9 GRADED
RB48483452134 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE49493823361 OF 36 GRADED
OL6363—032CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL60601380227 OF 22 GRADED
LB5151—100466 OF 46 GRADED
DB4141—74256 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE0th0
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#144 · 0/50 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 3 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UABALEX MORTENSENFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
77
PASS RATE
11
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNAVY OFFENSEUAB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
62
RET
100
NATIONAL
133OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEUAB DEFENSE
NAVY QUARTERBACKSn=90% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON GUTIERREZQBRET
523RD YR6—UNR—
BRAXTON WOODSONQBRET
474TH YR4935★3-53
EVAN BLOUIRQBTRUE FR
341ST YR——UNR—
RYAN BRASSQBRET
312ND YR——UNR—
MICHAEL DOVEQBRET
352ND YR—22★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3910%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
330%0%
SECONDARYDB
3623%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
10
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7UAB DEFENSE
NAVY OFFENSIVE LINEn=32100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM JOHNSONOTRET
812ND YR——UNR-35 2025
SEAN CROWLEYOTRET
713RD YR——UNR-24 2025
HOKE SMITH IIGRET
704TH YR——UNR-14 2025
CAM NICHOLSCRET
544TH YR——UNR+11 2025
JAKE POLITOOLRET
543RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS94% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM CUNNINGHAMDLTRUE FR
524TH YR2628★3—
STERLING SANDERSDLPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
521ST YR2245★3—
RAYMOND MACIASDLTRUE FR
482ND YR219★3—
BLANCHE GOLDLBTRUE FR
484TH YR2828★3—
MUAAZ BYARDLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
474TH YR7428★3-65
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
48
RET
52
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
10
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7UAB DEFENSE
NAVY RUNNING BACKSn=1348% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VIC LISTORTIRBRET
524TH YR9—UNR+36
JACOB WILLIAMSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—34★3—
STEFAN EGBERBRET
374TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTIAN CROMERRBRET
352ND YR——UNR—
JAI HUNDLEYRBRET
353RD YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS95% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553910%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45330%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENAVY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
49
RET
23
DB
131OF 138
DB RET
23
SECONDARYUAB DEFENSE
NAVY PASS CATCHERSn=3677% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL BARROWWRRET
523RD YR5—UNR—
JORDAN COLLINSTERET
492ND YR—27★3—
ISAIAH BRYANTWRRET
484TH YR29—UNR—
CHARLES ROBINSONWRRET
463RD YR—60★3—
JOSHUA GUERINWRRET
434TH YR44—UNR-52
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTA'VEON MCKENZIEDBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
523RD YR3017★3—
DIEZEL WILKINSONDBTRUE FR
483RD YR2464★3—
JEREMIAH JORDANDBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
474TH YR6745★3+24
QUE BILLINGSLEYDBPORTAL · GARDNER-WEBB
463RD YR61—UNR+14
DARRELL SWEETINGDBPORTAL · MARSHALL
453RD YR7841★3-22
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
59.3
39.4
— OFFENSE
77.8
44.3
— DEFENSE
40.7
34.5
SP+ OVERALL
-0.7
-17.3
FPI
-5.3
-15.4
ELO
1513
1403
TALENT
196
606
PRODUCTION
54
10
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−53
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
OFF EFFICIENCY
94
58
DEF EFFICIENCY
61
3
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
52
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
37
FINISHING DRIVES
70
64
FIELD POSITION
12
55
TURNOVER MARGIN
31
6
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NAVY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
PASS RATE
21.1%
34.0%
PACE
27.1s
25.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
87.4%
71.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.1%
47.5%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
72.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NAVY, ORANGE = UAB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE