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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›CLEM @ CAL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC75
OU @ UGA71
WAKE @ LOU71
JMU @ ODU70
TA&M @ LSU69
KSU @ CIN69
NAVY @ UAB68
MIZ @ MSST68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL67
MINN @ WASH67
TEX @ TENN66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH64
MISS @ FLA64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
OKST @ WVU63
WIS @ PSU63
UCLA @ MD62
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
NEB @ MSU61
VAN @ AUB61
SC @ ALA60
MOST @ SMU60
COLO @ BAY60
APP @ NCSU60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
ND @ PUR57
SHSU @ TTU57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV54
HOU @ GASO54
TROY @ USU54
RICE @ FRES53
VT @ BC52
DEL @ UVA52
UNLV @ AKR51
CONN @ M-OH48
ORST @ UTEP48
LIB @ CCU47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
NIU @ GAST39
UNM @ NMSU39
BALL @ KENT35
KENN @ ARST35
MTSU @ JXST33
FAU @ ULM32
USM @ TULN30
UL @ CLT30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CLEMSON
CALIFORNIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
FRI 22:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U50.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
42FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
2-1
89
58
78
41%
28
74
24.8
+100
+1.0
HOME
—AP
73FPI
CALACCCALIFORNIA
2-1
77
43
66
58%
86
58
25.8
-120
-1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADCAL -1.0
IMPLIED — CLEM24.8
IMPLIED — CAL25.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
32 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
30 / 57
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CLEM PACE29.4s
28
CAL PACE25.1s
86
SHARED PACE27.2s
57
PLAY VOLUME133
57
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CLEM44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
18
PROE
87
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE18p
18
PROE87p
87
TEMPO28p
28
CAL81CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
96
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE96p
96
TEMPO86p
86
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
CLEMRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs1.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
CLEMSON won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.0
CALIFORNIA won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONCALIFORNIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Cade KlubnikDRAFTED · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB73%Adam RandallDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Peter WoodsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. ParkerDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMonte CapehartDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Blake MillerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan LinthicumC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan LeighOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Ricardo JonesPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvieon TerrellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil BarnesPORTAL · GEORGIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wade WoodazDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Antonio WilliamsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh SappTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTait Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Brock Bradley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChris Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SMUREFILLED
DLMarkus Strong · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALondon Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADODevarrick Woods · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChance Barclay · SIGNEE ★4Leo Delaney · SIGNEE ★4Grant Wise · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDonovan Starr · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNElliot Washington II · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEPolo Anderson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Reilly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENaeem Burroughs · SIGNEE ★4Gordon Sellars III · SIGNEE ★4Connor Salmin · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.781 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.486 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.364 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171916162 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353897274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE62629398268 OF 26 GRADED
OL61618980216 OF 21 GRADED
DL575788562312 OF 23 GRADED
LB585879100125 OF 12 GRADED
DB565672562011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%89
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 10/22 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
9292
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8787
HAVOC
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
1010
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HAVOC
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
71
RET
61
NATIONAL
47OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE
CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTOPHER VIZZINAQBRET
504TH YR5797★4-20
TAIT REYNOLDSQBTRUE FR
481ST YR2282★3+13
CHRIS DENSONQBRET
522ND YR—80★3—
TRENT PEARMANQBRET
384TH YR——UNR—
BROCK BRADLEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3125%12%
LINEBACKERSLB
3633%25%
SECONDARYDB
5235%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
61
RET
80
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON WAREOLRET
522ND YR3186★4—
ELYJAH THURMONOLRET
523RD YR6192★4—
CHAPMAN PENDERGRASSOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
HARRIS SEWELLOLRET
504TH YR9494★4+7
MASON WADEOLRET
503RD YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS71% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JERICHO JOHNSONDLPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR5092★4—
DEREK WILKINSDLRET
524TH YR8185★4-26
ODERA OKAKALBRET
524TH YR429★2—
SOLOMON WILLIAMSLBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
502ND YR4778★3—
AJ TUITELELBPORTAL · USC
501ST YR3464★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
53
RET
72
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
33
FRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE
CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JOHNSON JR.RBPORTAL · SMU
584TH YR6578★3+30
JARVIS GREENRBRET
514TH YR3868★3-36
DAVID EZIOMUMERBRET
473RD YR4689★4+25
GIDEON DAVIDSONRBRET
472ND YR6097★4-16
JAY HAYNESRBRET
584TH YR—64★3+33 2024
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS71% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553125%12%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453633%25%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
62
RET
98
DB
64OF 138
DB RET
35
SECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE
CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYANT WESCO JR.WRRET
743RD YR9498★4+24
T.J. MOOREWRRET
653RD YR9899★4+4
OLSEN PATT-HENRYTERET
544TH YR7485★4+2
GORDON SELLARS IIIWRTRUE FR
481ST YR794★4—
CHRISTIAN BENTANCURTERET
473RD YR—97★4-15
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM SIDNEYDBRET
584TH YR8978★3+6
JAE'ON YOUNGDBRET
511ST YR2585★4—
MICHAEL HURST JR.DBTRUE FR
504TH YR3321★3—
KHAMANI HUDSONDBRET
491ST YR3848★3—
RICKY FLETCHERDBPORTAL · OLE MISS
474TH YR9685★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.7
44.2
— OFFENSE
39.1
53.7
— DEFENSE
32.3
34.8
SP+ OVERALL
8.1
-0.6
FPI
6.1
-1.5
ELO
1560
1353
TALENT
863
752
PRODUCTION
72
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
+30
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.52
0.25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
OFF EFFICIENCY
3
32
DEF EFFICIENCY
29
60
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
18
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
24
FINISHING DRIVES
32
43
FIELD POSITION
38
79
TURNOVER MARGIN
14
69
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
PASS RATE
51.6%
57.2%
PACE
29.4s
25.1s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
3%
33%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.9%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
80.3%
PLAYS / GAME
61.3
71.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.2%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE