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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›UTAH @ ISU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTAH
IOWA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JACK TRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#17AP
15FPI
UTAHB12UTAH
3-0
58
95
53
68%
77
69
28.5
-360
-7.5
HOME
—AP
55FPI
ISUB12IOWA STATE
2-1
51
63
67
2%
4
69
21.0
+285
+7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUTAH -7.5
IMPLIED — UTAH28.5
IMPLIED — ISU21.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
37 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
31 / 57
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
UTAH PACE26.0s
77
ISU PACE33.1s
4
SHARED PACE29.5s
41
PLAY VOLUME124
41
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTAH63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
87
PROE
26
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE87p
87
PROE26p
26
TEMPO77p
77
ISU40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
30
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE30p
30
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UTAHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
UTAH won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ISURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.3
IOWA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAHIOWA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL79%Tanoa TogiaiOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaren KumpOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb LomuDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Dallen BentleyDRAFTED · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan DavisWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ BuchananPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL69%Jonah Lea'eaPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAliki VimahiDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan FanoDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Tao JohnsonPORTAL · UCLA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake CottonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSmith SnowdenPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Lander BartonLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLevani DamuniLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB31%NaQuari RogersRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Isaac WilsonPORTAL · COLORADO · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLIsaiah Kema · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEKelvin Obot · SIGNEE ★5Mataalii Benjamin · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEBraden Pegan · PORTAL ★4 · UTAH STATEKyri Shoels · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEPARTIAL
DLEthan Day · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASLucas Samsula · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGJireh Moe · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJames Chenault Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAJames Chenault · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAAisa Galea'i · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBPreston Pitts · SIGNEE ★3LaGary Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBSteve Chavez-Soto · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATELaMarcus Bell · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBKane Archer · SIGNEE ★3Michael Johnson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.747 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.448 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.756 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB80807610052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464886585 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666666392214 OF 22 GRADED
OL777771601910 OF 19 GRADED
DL575773671812 OF 18 GRADED
LB62626797106 OF 10 GRADED
DB545471572514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%55
RECRUITING CLASS#27 · 3/16 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+32 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 17 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ISUJIMMY ROGERSFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
PACE
1515
PASS RATE
5959
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HAVOC
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTAHMORGAN SCALLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTAH OFFENSEISU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
80
RET
100
NATIONAL
29OF 136
RET
15
FULL DEFENSEIOWA STATE DEFENSE
UTAH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEVON DAMPIERQBRET
844TH YR9178★3-4
BYRD FICKLINQBRET
582ND YR3470★3+33
BRANDON ROSEQBPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
444TH YR5378★3-41
KANE ARCHERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
MICHAEL JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3026%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5230%0%
SECONDARYDB
5835%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
77
RET
60
DL
124OF 138
DL RET
26
LB
55OF 138
LB RET
30
FRONT-7IOWA STATE DEFENSE
UTAH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1940% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CEDRIC JEFFERSONOLPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
493RD YR—45★3—
ALEX HARRISONOLRET
554TH YR—65★3—
ROGER ALDERMANOLRET
544TH YR—80★3—
KEITH OLSONOLRET
544TH YR—60★3—
ISAIAH KEMAOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
521ST YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS72% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM JONESLBPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
784TH YR8164★3+20
ISAAC TERRELLDEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
694TH YR7878★3+44
JACE GILBERTDERET
582ND YR5568★3+40
JACK JANIKOWSKIDEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
533RD YR5064★3—
CADEN CRAWFORDDEPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
524TH YR2864★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
64
RET
65
DL
124OF 138
DL RET
26
LB
55OF 138
LB RET
30
FRONT-7IOWA STATE DEFENSE
UTAH RUNNING BACKSn=835% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYSHAWN PARKERRBRET
823RD YR9495★4+21
STEVE CHAVEZ-SOTORBPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
622ND YR6085★3+3
DANIEL BRAYRBRET
612ND YR4669★3+28
LAMARCUS BELLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—82★3—
MATEAKI HELURBRET
442ND YR—67★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS72% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553026%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455230%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
66
RET
39
DB
33OF 138
DB RET
35
SECONDARYIOWA STATE DEFENSE
UTAH PASS CATCHERSn=2261% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRADEN PEGANWRPORTAL · UTAH STATE
784TH YR8997★4+21
KYRI SHOELSWRPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
574TH YR—64★3+9 2025
HUNTER ANDREWSTERET
533RD YR2780★3-42
LARRY SIMMONSWRRET
534TH YR8885★3+27
NOAH BENNEETEPORTAL · WEBER STATE
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ISU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DREW SURGESSRET
613RD YR6642★3-28
MICAH HARPERSPORTAL · MONTANA
604TH YR8064★3+5
DAVID COFFEYCBRET
522ND YR4972★3-21
BENI NGOYICBRET
523RD YR2472★3—
TRILLION SORRELLCBPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
491ST YR3645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.5
48.6
— OFFENSE
60.8
40.2
— DEFENSE
36.3
57.0
SP+ OVERALL
14.8
3.5
FPI
16.5
4.4
ELO
1907
1683
TALENT
696
670
PRODUCTION
79
50
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
OFF EFFICIENCY
96
72
DEF EFFICIENCY
77
69
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
35
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
67
FINISHING DRIVES
95
27
FIELD POSITION
57
36
TURNOVER MARGIN
66
90
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ISU
PASS RATE
44.2%
33.7%
PACE
26.0s
33.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.0%
72.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
51.0%
49.0%
PLAYS / GAME
69.3
54.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
9.6%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTAH, ORANGE = ISU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE