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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›SC @ ALA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH CAROLINA
ALABAMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
21FPI
SCSECSOUTH CAROLINA
2-0
90
36
79
69%
61
91
0.0
—
—
HOME
#12AP
7FPI
ALASECALABAMA
2-0
98
77
85
26%
75
98
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
47
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE47p
47
TEMPO61p
61
ALA64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
94
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE94p
94
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH CAROLINAALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB71%Rahsul FaisonRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOscar Adaway IIIRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL64%Trovon BaughOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBoaz StanleyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTree BabaladeOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Bryan Thomas Jr.LB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond UmeozuluPORTAL · ALABAMA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJatius GeerLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL53%Nick BarrettDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonkell GoodwineDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavonte MilesDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%DQ SmithPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalon KilgoreDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon CisseDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Vandrevius JacobsPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan DingleTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian Rowe Jr.PORTAL · UCLA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Air NolandPORTAL · MEMPHIS · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBChristian Clark · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJabree Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEREFILLED
OLJacarrius Peak · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEEmmanuel Poku · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINASeth Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKeenan Britt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTomiwa Durojaiye · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISCaleb Herring · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEKelby Collins · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJ'Zavien Currence · SIGNEE ★4Kosci Barnes · SIGNEE ★4KJ Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TENitro Tuggle · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUECaden Ramsey · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBLandon Duckworth · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.868 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.659 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.264 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666859463 OF 6 GRADED
RB6464697275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE656580602015 OF 20 GRADED
OL505065302111 OF 21 GRADED
DL606085321716 OF 17 GRADED
LB4848788896 OF 9 GRADED
DB636379662321 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE90th90
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%90
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 10/18 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SCSHANE BEAMER6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSC OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
66
RET
94
NATIONAL
10OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE
SC QUARTERBACKSn=66% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANORRIS SELLERSQBRET
713RD YR8991★4+17
CUTTER WOODSQBRET
501ST YR2578★3—
LUCIAN ANDERSON IIIQBPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
473RD YR4245★3-19
LANDON DUCKWORTHQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—95★4—
BRANDON CUNNINGHAMQBRET
471ST YR—85★4—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
6560%59%
SECONDARYDB
6890%52%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
75OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
50
RET
30
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
SC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2170% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMANUEL KOJO POKUOLTRUE FR
684TH YR—85★3—
JACARRIUS PEAKOLPORTAL · NC STATE
684TH YR—99★4+8 2025
HANK PURVISOLPORTAL · PURDUE
583RD YR—45★3+29 2025
SETH SMITHOLPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
504TH YR—78★3—
DARIUS GRAYOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—99★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YHONZAE PIERRELBRET
704TH YR8299★5+10 2025
LONDON SIMMONSDLRET
702ND YR5783★3-36
DEVAN THOMPKINSDLPORTAL · USC
604TH YR8899★4-7
ISAIA FAGADLRET
553RD YR4783★3—
STEVE BOLO MBOUMOUADLRET
523RD YR2688★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
69
PERF
64
RET
73
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
SC RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH AUGUSTAVERBRET
563RD YR7445★3+17
JAWARN HOWELLRBRET
533RD YR4764★3+31
JABREE COLEMANRBPORTAL · PENN STATE
491ST YR1164★3—
CHRISTIAN CLARKRBPORTAL · TEXAS
492ND YR5285★3-34
MATT FULLERRBRET
462ND YR6284★4-46
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456560%59%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
65
RET
60
DB
7OF 138
DB RET
90
SECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE
SC PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NYCK HARBORWRRET
564TH YR9799★5+5
MIKE TYLERTERET
512ND YR1382★3—
LEX CYRUSWRRET
511ST YR—87★4—
SEQUEL PATTERSONWRTRUE FR
491ST YR—90★4—
DONOVAN MURPHWRRET
482ND YR5894★4+26
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAY HUBBARDDBRET
914TH YR9588★4+24
ZABIEN BROWNDBRET
713RD YR9799★5+5
KEON SABBDBRET
594TH YR9997★4+7
DRE KIRKPATRICK JR.DBRET
523RD YR3873★3—
IVAN TAYLORDBRET
512ND YR3797★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.0
53.1
— OFFENSE
65.0
58.7
— DEFENSE
43.0
47.6
SP+ OVERALL
16.9
21.2
FPI
14.7
23.2
ELO
1763
1859
TALENT
863
974
PRODUCTION
83
91
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.53
0.63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
OFF EFFICIENCY
16
60
DEF EFFICIENCY
48
84
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
80
65
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
52
FINISHING DRIVES
5
78
FIELD POSITION
94
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
63
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
PASS RATE
44.4%
40.7%
PACE
26.7s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.6%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.5%
65.6%
PLAYS / GAME
67.5
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.9%
5.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SC, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE