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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›TLSA @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULSA
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 20:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/U53.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
72FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
3-0
39
16
37
41%
57
31
23.5
+210
+6.5
HOME
—AP
74FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-2
74
99
36
14%
89
100
30.0
-258
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADARK -6.5
IMPLIED — TLSA23.5
IMPLIED — ARK30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
25 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
3 / 57
DISAGREEMENT22 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 22 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
TLSA PACE27.1s
57
ARK PACE24.8s
89
SHARED PACE26.0s
73
PLAY VOLUME139
73
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TLSA50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
63
PROE
29
TEMPO
57
EXPLOSIVE63p
63
PROE29p
29
TEMPO57p
57
ARK55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
63
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE63p
63
TEMPO89p
89
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULSAARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Dominic RichardsonRB · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAjay AllenPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraylin PresleyRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL72%J'Dan BurnettPORTAL · RUTGERS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahki JohnsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim HardimanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Brody FoleyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion SteptoePORTAL · MINNESOTA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion BookerPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL64%Simon WilsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaQuan AdamsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean HillOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Ray ConeyPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AnglinPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha GarrettPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB25%Lento Smith Jr.S · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChamp LewisPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB20%Kirk FrancisPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrequan Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONDamari Alston · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNSeth Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKyran Duhon · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEThomas Davis · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEKadin Fossung · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDavid Wells Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEGrant McAtee · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGEJavon Ross · PORTAL ★3 · BETHUNE-COOKMAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Preciado · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMADeminio Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Dawson Matthews · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBReilarean Phillips · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaldra Williford · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORKeynan Farley · SIGNEE ★3Carter Langenderfer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBKyden Barker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.558 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.829 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3737910071 OF 7 GRADED
RB454565073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505040262011 OF 20 GRADED
OL47473680207 OF 20 GRADED
DL474749341611 OF 16 GRADED
LB39394581113 OF 11 GRADED
DB414147682310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%41
RECRUITING CLASS#93 · 0/18 BC31
CLASS RANK TREND-39 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTLSA OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
37
RET
100
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
TLSA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEXTER WILLIAMS IIQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
494TH YR—17★3-33 2025
BAYLOR HAYESQBRET
482ND YR719★3-13
ANDREW ALFORDQBRET
351ST YR—52★3—
KYDEN BARKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
CONNOR DANTZLERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
47
RET
80
DL
44OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
TLSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI PRECIADOOLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
574TH YR—45★3+40 2025
IAN MAYESOLRET
492ND YR—50★3+24 2025
WILL MORRISOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
HUNTER ERBOLRET
474TH YR—17★3+21 2025
COLTEN CHRISTIANOLRET
472ND YR—32★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
45
RET
0
DL
44OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
TLSA RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREQUAN JONESRBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
654TH YR6764★3+33
SEVION MORRISONRBRET
524TH YR—17★3+22 2024
SETH DAVISRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
503RD YR—45★3+29 2025
DAMARI ALSTONRBPORTAL · AUBURN
484TH YR8164★3-12
D.J. MCKINNEYRBTRUE FR
483RD YR8671★3+2
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULSA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
50
RET
26
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
TLSA PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ORAN SINGLETON JR.WRPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
504TH YR8718★3-5
JOSH SMITHWRRET
502ND YR—74★3+22 2025
JAVON ROSSWRPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
503RD YR—45★3—
DONNELL GEE JR.WRRET
492ND YR4435★3-3
GRANT MCATEETEPORTAL · NORTH CENTRAL COLLEGE
483RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.9
48.6
— OFFENSE
53.7
49.4
— DEFENSE
44.2
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
-4.0
1.5
FPI
-1.0
-1.6
ELO
1277
1466
TALENT
623
745
PRODUCTION
34
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
38
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
34
FINISHING DRIVES
11
79
FIELD POSITION
85
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
27
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
43.7%
61.0%
PACE
27.1s
24.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.9%
48.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.0%
77.5%
PLAYS / GAME
66.3
72.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.0%
6.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TLSA, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE