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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›VAN @ AUB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VANDERBILT
AUBURN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U54.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
43FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
3-0
70
100
44
35%
28
90
22.5
+280
+9.5
HOME
—AP
24FPI
AUBSECAUBURN
2-1
88
67
90
14%
91
95
32.0
-355
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADAUB -9.5
IMPLIED — VAN22.5
IMPLIED — AUB32.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
16 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
4 / 57
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
VAN PACE29.4s
28
AUB PACE24.6s
91
SHARED PACE27.0s
60
PLAY VOLUME135
60
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VAN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
80
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE80p
80
TEMPO28p
28
AUB66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
60
PROE
48
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE60p
60
PROE48p
48
TEMPO91p
91
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTAUBURN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Diego PaviaQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Isaia GlassOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase MitchellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce HendersonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Khordae SydnorDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZaylin WoodDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua SinghDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Eli StowersDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre RichardsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichie HoskinsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Randon FontenettePORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlen SewellS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbey TaylorCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Langston PattersonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrince KollieLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB10%AJ NewberryPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJared Curtis · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLBeau Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEMicah DeBose · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAMitchell Smith · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLBrian Allen · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAJace McCallum · SIGNEE ★3Daryl Campbell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJa'Cory Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · OLD DOMINIONJayvontay Conner · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINATilden Riley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicardo Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONCollin Flanigan · SIGNEE ★4Bradley Brown · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDaniel Vollmer Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEvan Hampton · SIGNEE ★4Izayah Lee · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.974 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.256 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.878 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7878856752 OF 5 GRADED
RB56565410084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE75756448229 OF 22 GRADED
OL54546363188 OF 18 GRADED
DL585862602412 OF 24 GRADED
LB585855100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB585874752315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 5/23 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
PACE
9595
PASS RATE
4141
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
78
RET
67
NATIONAL
7OF 136
RET
41
FULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE
VAN QUARTERBACKSn=533% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAZE BERLOWITZQBRET
514TH YR3578★3+20
JARED CURTISQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—100★5—
WHIT MUSCHAMPQBRET
413RD YR—69★3—
JACK ELLIOTTQBRET
352ND YR—67★3—
DREW COWARTQBTRUE FR
322ND YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5567%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
73100%50%
SECONDARYDB
5278%40%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
54
RET
63
DL
51OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
9OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE
VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1837% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYNDON COOPEROLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
514TH YR—64★3+34 2025
ORION IRVINGOLRET
504TH YR—45★3-2 2025
GUNNER GIVENSOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
CADE MCCONNELLOLRET
494TH YR—73★3-2 2025
MITCHELL SMITHOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—88★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER ATKINSLBRET
923RD YR8364★3-19
CODY SIGLERDLPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
814TH YR7328★3+20
CHRIS MURRAYDLRET
624TH YR8962★3+24
DA'SHAWN WOMACKEDGEPORTAL · OLE MISS
604TH YR7197★4+33
WALTER MATHIS JR.DLPORTAL · LSU
552ND YR4795★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
56
RET
100
DL
51OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
9OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE
VAN RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRBRET
684TH YR9775★3-14
MAKHILYN YOUNGRBRET
604TH YR5810★3+35 2025
JAMEZELL LASSITERRBRET
523RD YR21—UNR+37
EVAN HAMPTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—84★4—
GABE FISHERFBRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555567%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4573100%50%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
75
RET
48
DB
62OF 138
DB RET
78
SECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE
VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2252% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'CORY THOMASWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
693RD YR7392★4+33
JUNIOR SHERRILLWRRET
664TH YR9856★3+15
JAYVONTAY CONNERTEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
653RD YR5589★3+52
MAURICE VENEYTEPORTAL · MOREHOUSE
523RD YR—28★3—
WALTER TAYLORTETRUE FR
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FRED GASKIN IIISTRUE FR
843RD YR—45★3+20 2025
ERIC WINTERSSRET
692ND YR5796★4+16
ANQUON FEGANSSRET
672ND YR5397★4+45
SYLVESTER SMITH-REEDSRET
534TH YR8491★4-14
ANDRE JORDAN JR.CBPORTAL · UCLA
534TH YR9478★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.7
45.1
— OFFENSE
56.3
52.9
— DEFENSE
39.0
37.2
SP+ OVERALL
10.1
11.7
FPI
6.1
12.9
ELO
1742
1668
TALENT
727
828
PRODUCTION
79
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
63
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
85
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
11
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
23
31
FINISHING DRIVES
100
39
FIELD POSITION
41
92
TURNOVER MARGIN
45
86
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
PASS RATE
50.0%
51.4%
PACE
29.4s
24.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.1%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.4%
60.0%
PLAYS / GAME
61.3
73.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE