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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›OU @ UGA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OKLAHOMA
GEORGIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U43.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#24AP
14FPI
OUSECOKLAHOMA
2-1
88
35
100
63%
15
96
14.8
+450
+14.0
HOME
#2AP
3FPI
UGASECGEORGIA
3-0
100
73
92
69%
20
91
28.8
-650
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADUGA -14.0
IMPLIED — OU14.8
IMPLIED — UGA28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
27FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
57 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
53 / 57
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
OU PACE30.9s
15
UGA PACE30.0s
20
SHARED PACE30.4s
17
PLAY VOLUME118
17
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
78
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE78p
78
TEMPO15p
15
UGA44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
32
TEMPO
20
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE32p
32
TEMPO20p
20
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.0
GEORGIA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMAGEORGIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE72%Deion BurksDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaren KanakDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJV GibsonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB52%Kendal DanielsDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobie McKinziePORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSammy OmosighoPORTAL · UCLA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL51%Marvin Jones Jr.DL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGracen HaltonDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONR Mason ThomasDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Febechi NwaiwuDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerek SimmonsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB32%Robert Spears-JenningsDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevon JordanPORTAL · BAYLOR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB15%Jovantae BarnesPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaydn OttRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB7%Michael Hawkins Jr.PORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETrell Harris · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIAParker Livingstone · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASJack Van Dorselaer · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEE6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJacob Curry · SIGNEE ★4Dane Bathurst · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJake Kreul · SIGNEE ★4Matthew Nelson · SIGNEE ★4Daniel Norman · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLE'Marion Harris · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASDeacon Schmitt · SIGNEE ★4Noah Best · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDerrick Johnson II · SIGNEE ★4Markel Ford · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJonathan Hatton Jr. · SIGNEE ★4DeZephen Walker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBBowe Bentley · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.192 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.282 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.689 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252949143 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939612485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE747480342412 OF 24 GRADED
OL636380371813 OF 18 GRADED
DL848486741914 OF 19 GRADED
LB87878475128 OF 12 GRADED
DB575788791812 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO54%91
RECRUITING CLASS#15 · 11/25 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 16 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
PACE
8080
PASS RATE
5252
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HAVOC
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OUBRENT VENABLES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
7777
PASS RATE
4040
EXPLOSIVENESS
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOU OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
52
RET
91
NATIONAL
22OF 136
RET
62
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE
OU QUARTERBACKSn=49% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN MATEERQBRET
564TH YR93100★4+18
BOWE BENTLEYQBTRUE FR
481ST YR597★4—
WHITT NEWBAUERQBRET
412ND YR1245★3—
JETT NIUQBRET
351ST YR—61★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4972%69%
LINEBACKERSLB
5567%76%
SECONDARYDB
6336%81%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
63
RET
37
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
67
FRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE
OU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1863% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FRED HINTONOLPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY
523RD YR1517★3—
MICHAEL FASUSIOLRET
662ND YR75100★5-18 2025
JAKE MAIKKULAOLRET
624TH YR—45★3+33 2025
E'MARION HARRISOLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
624TH YR9598★4-39 2025
EDDY PIERRE-LOUISOLRET
582ND YR7190★4+37 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH GRIFFINDLRET
772ND YR—100★5-13 2025
JORDAN HALLDLRET
604TH YR6599★5-26
CHRIS COLELBRET
593RD YR7499★5+6 2025
JOSH HORTONDTRET
564TH YR5378★3+13
LONDON SEYMOURDLRET
522ND YR962★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
39
RET
24
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
41OF 138
LB RET
67
FRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE
OU RUNNING BACKSn=876% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN MCCREARYRBTRUE FR
504TH YR16—UNR—
JONATHAN HATTON JR.RBTRUE FR
501ST YR997★4—
XAVIER ROBINSONRBRET
483RD YR7677★3+11
LLOYD AVANTRBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
473RD YR8145★3+3
ANDY BASSRBRET
412ND YR578★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554972%69%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455567%76%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
74
RET
34
DB
17OF 138
DB RET
36
SECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE
OU PASS CATCHERSn=2466% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH SATEGNA IIIWRRET
744TH YR9995★4+0
ROCKY BEERSTEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
734TH YR8345★3+18
TRELL HARRISWRPORTAL · VIRGINIA
714TH YR9998★4+18
MACKENZIE ALLEYNEWRPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
522ND YR3045★3—
ELIJAH THOMASWRRET
512ND YR1995★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ BOLDENDBRET
723RD YR95100★5+54
KYRON JONESDBRET
584TH YR5499★5+12
ZION BRANCHSRET
544TH YR7778★3-1
JA'MARLEY RIDDLESPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
533RD YR—78★3+8 2025
BRAYLON CONLEYDBPORTAL · USC
513RD YR5264★3-37
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.0
57.5
— OFFENSE
58.0
69.4
— DEFENSE
46.0
45.5
SP+ OVERALL
19.2
29.3
FPI
16.7
27.1
ELO
1782
1972
TALENT
851
1004
PRODUCTION
93
98
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.54
0.77
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
OFF EFFICIENCY
28
87
DEF EFFICIENCY
99
73
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
53
10
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
89
FINISHING DRIVES
56
97
FIELD POSITION
17
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
33
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
PASS RATE
46.3%
45.6%
PACE
30.9s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.1%
53.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.7%
42.5%
PLAYS / GAME
58.3
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OU, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE