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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›TA&M @ LSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS A&M
LSU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U52.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#9AP
12FPI
TA&MSECTEXAS A&M
2-1
96
92
96
73%
94
96
21.3
+290
+10.0
HOME
#7AP
8FPI
LSUSECLSU
2-1
95
44
93
21%
100
86
31.3
-380
-10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADLSU -10.0
IMPLIED — TA&M21.3
IMPLIED — LSU31.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
29 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
28 / 57
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
TA&M PACE23.9s
94
LSU PACE22.1s
100
SHARED PACE23.0s
97
PLAY VOLUME157
97
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TA&M49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
10
PROE
41
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE10p
10
PROE41p
41
TEMPO94p
94
LSU82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
57
PROE
90
TEMPO
100
EXPLOSIVE57p
57
PROE90p
90
TEMPO100p
100
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TA&MRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.4
TEXAS A&M won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS A&MLSU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL75%Chase BisontisDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDametrious CrownoverDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey Zuhn IIIDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL67%Cashius HowellDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler OnyedimDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert RegisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Theo Melin OhrstromPORTAL · SMU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKC ConcepcionDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate BoerkircherDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Taurean YorkLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONScooby WilliamsLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Le'Veon MossRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ SmithRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmari DanielsRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Will Lee IIIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyreek ChappellCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB5%Miles O'NeillPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLWilkin Formby · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMASam Roseborough · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLAnto Saka · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNBryce Perry-Wright · SIGNEE ★4Tristian Givens · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEIsaiah Horton · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAAaron Gregory · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Warren · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTamarion Watkins · SIGNEE ★4Qui Beck · SIGNEE ★4Tank King · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKJ Edwards · SIGNEE ★4Carsyn Baker · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBRickey Gibson III · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEBrandon Arrington · SIGNEE ★5Vic Singleton · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHelaman Casuga · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS A&M
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.372 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.969 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB59599010052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858967274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE646487582313 OF 23 GRADED
OL747480481713 OF 17 GRADED
DL757589462016 OF 20 GRADED
LB81818454126 OF 12 GRADED
DB606093702513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO76%99
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 22/27 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TA&MMIKE ELKO3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
4040
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTA&M OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
59
RET
100
NATIONAL
11OF 136
RET
46
FULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE
TA&M QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCEL REEDQBRET
624TH YR8989★4+12
BRADY HARTQBRET
492ND YR2393★4—
HELAMAN CASUGAQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
ELI MORCOSQBRET
352ND YR—59★3—
PAXTON LANDQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
6671%82%
SECONDARYDB
7274%45%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
74
RET
48
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
TA&M OFFENSIVE LINEn=1752% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TROVON BAUGHOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
454TH YR—45★3-11 2025
MARK NABOU JR.OLRET
704TH YR—81★3+26 2025
WILKIN FORMBYOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR—98★4-5 2025
TYREE ADAMSOLPORTAL · LSU
554TH YR—78★3-4 2025
ROBERT BOURDONOLRET
543RD YR—86★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WHIT WEEKSLBRET
704TH YR9694★4+32
STEPHIYLAN GREENDTPORTAL · CLEMSON
553RD YR7795★4-30
DYLAN CARPENTERDERET
553RD YR5080★3—
TJ DOTTERYLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
544TH YR9895★4+27
DAVHON KEYSLBRET
543RD YR8686★4-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
96
PERF
58
RET
72
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
TA&M RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RUEBEN OWENS IIRBRET
574TH YR9199★5-49 2023
KJ EDWARDSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1498★4—
CARSYN BAKERRBTRUE FR
511ST YR1892★4—
JAMARION MORROWRBRET
452ND YR4988★4-42
TIGER RIDEN JR.RBRET
502ND YR—85★4+8 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456671%82%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
64
RET
58
DB
4OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYLSU DEFENSE
TA&M PASS CATCHERSn=2342% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARIO CRAVERWRRET
833RD YR9097★4+27
HOUSTON THOMASTEPORTAL · UTSA
654TH YR—45★3+30 2025
ISAIAH HORTONWRPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR97100★4+1
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANWRRET
543RD YR7891★4+31
AARON GREGORYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—97★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DASHAWN SPEARSSRET
703RD YR7096★4+47
DJ PICKETTCBRET
692ND YR73100★5+17
PJ WOODLANDCBRET
553RD YR8583★3-16
TY BENEFIELDSPORTAL · BOISE STATE
534TH YR10099★4+5
JHASE THOMASSRET
501ST YR287★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.9
60.6
— OFFENSE
47.1
64.9
— DEFENSE
44.6
56.2
SP+ OVERALL
24.2
24.1
FPI
18.1
20.4
ELO
1824
1786
TALENT
933
932
PRODUCTION
94
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
0
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.76
0.70
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
77
25
DEF EFFICIENCY
97
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
49
45
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
1
50
FINISHING DRIVES
83
13
FIELD POSITION
7
38
TURNOVER MARGIN
11
92
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
PASS RATE
50.4%
43.4%
PACE
23.9s
22.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.4%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
59.1%
PLAYS / GAME
75.3
81.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.5%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TA&M, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE