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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›TEX @ TENN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS
TENNESSEE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|NEYLAND STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U56.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#1AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
3-0
99
62
81
72%
96
93
30.0
-185
-3.5
HOME
#15AP
10FPI
TENNSECTENNESSEE
3-0
91
94
27
35%
66
89
26.5
+154
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADTEX -3.5
IMPLIED — TEX30.0
IMPLIED — TENN26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
11 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
6 / 57
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
TEX PACE23.6s
96
TENN PACE26.6s
66
SHARED PACE25.1s
81
PLAY VOLUME144
81
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEX65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
74
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE74p
74
TEMPO96p
96
TENN64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
79
TEMPO
66
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE79p
79
TEMPO66p
66
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASTENNESSEE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB89%Anthony Hill Jr.DRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MooreDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiona LefauPORTAL · COLORADO · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB89%Quintrevion WisnerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BaxterPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian ClarkPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Jack EndriesDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker LivingstonePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre Moore Jr.PORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Michael TaaffeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik MuhammadDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon GuilbeauDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%DJ CampbellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor StrohOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick BrooksOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Cole BrevardDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis ShawDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Matthew CaldwellQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRasheem Biles · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTyler Atkinson · SIGNEE ★5Rocky Cummings · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBHollywood Smothers · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATERaleek Brown · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATEDerrek Cooper · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TECam Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · AUBURNSterling Berkhalter · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTKohen Brown · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBo Mascoe · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSJohn Meredith III · SIGNEE ★5Samari Matthews · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMelvin Siani · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTJohn Turntine III · SIGNEE ★4Nicolas Robertson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLIan Geffrard · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASRichard Wesley · SIGNEE ★5Jamarion Carlton · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBDia Bell · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.280 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.361 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.581 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454971686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE707089722111 OF 21 GRADED
OL606084541912 OF 19 GRADED
DL626294831916 OF 19 GRADED
LB73738326118 OF 11 GRADED
DB646494822110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%94
RECRUITING CLASS#7 · 17/26 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TENNJOSH HEUPEL6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
PACE
9292
PASS RATE
3535
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSETENN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
66
RET
100
NATIONAL
46OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSETENNESSEE DEFENSE
TEX QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARCH MANNINGQBRET
813RD YR82100★5+17 2025
KARLE LACEY JR.QBRET
471ST YR—94★4—
DIA BELLQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
MJ MORRISQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
464TH YR—45★3-27 2025
LUKE DUNHAMQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6955%64%
LINEBACKERSLB
5975%55%
SECONDARYDB
5538%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
60
RET
54
DL
13OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
31OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE
TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=1946% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVOR GOOSBYOLRET
883RD YR—85★4+14 2025
MELVIN SIANIOLPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
874TH YR9298★4+1
BRANDON BAKEROLRET
833RD YR—99★5+20 2025
LAURENCE SEYMORE IIIOLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
644TH YR—78★3+43 2025
PARIS PATTERSONOLPORTAL · SMU
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARE CAMPBELLLBPORTAL · PENN STATE
764TH YR9978★3+24
ARION CARTERLBRET
694TH YR—98★4+20 2025
JORDAN NORMANDLPORTAL · TULANE
633RD YR8645★3+30
EDWIN SPILLMANLBRET
572ND YR7651★3+16
DAEVIN HOBBSDLRET
564TH YR—98★4-15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
54
RET
16
DL
13OF 138
DL RET
55
LB
31OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE
TEX RUNNING BACKSn=884% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RALEEK BROWNRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
724TH YR9097★4+18
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRBPORTAL · NC STATE
713RD YR9399★4+22
MICHAEL TERRY IIIRBRET
511ST YR1198★4—
JAMES SIMONRBRET
491ST YR4293★4-35
RYAN NIBLETTRBRET
493RD YR3098★4-9
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556955%64%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455975%55%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
70
RET
72
DB
50OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYTENNESSEE DEFENSE
TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2128% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMETT MOSLEY VWRRET
613RD YR8985★3+25
RYAN WINGOWRRET
553RD YR9599★4+17
CAM COLEMANWRPORTAL · AUBURN
553RD YR97100★5-7
SPENCER SHANNONTERET
533RD YR2174★3—
EMAREE WINSTONTERET
522ND YR1480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUA MOSSDBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
714TH YR7364★3+14
DEJUAN LANEDBPORTAL · PENN STATE
513RD YR6978★3+38
DJ BURKSDBPORTAL · APP STATE
514TH YR9345★3+42
TJ METCALFDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
504TH YR9878★3+14
TEVIS METCALFDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
492ND YR2845★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.6
53.3
— OFFENSE
54.6
61.8
— DEFENSE
38.6
44.8
SP+ OVERALL
25.0
20.2
FPI
28.1
18.5
ELO
1935
1771
TALENT
985
886
PRODUCTION
96
91
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.61
0.47
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
97
DEF EFFICIENCY
69
18
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
91
57
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
91
FINISHING DRIVES
28
86
FIELD POSITION
15
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
85
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
PASS RATE
47.6%
37.4%
PACE
23.6s
26.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.9%
64.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.8%
42.0%
PLAYS / GAME
76.3
67.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
3.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = TENN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE