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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›ARIZ @ WSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARIZONA
WASHINGTON STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|GESA FIELDNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
43FPI
ARIZB12ARIZONA
1-1
61
68
90
65%
42
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
99FPI
WSUPACWASHINGTON STATE
0-2
42
33
70
91%
4
49
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARIZ41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
76
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE76p
76
TEMPO42p
42
WSU25CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
17
PROE
54
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE17p
17
PROE54p
54
TEMPO4p
4
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.4
WASHINGTON STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONAWASHINGTON STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB83%Dalton JohnsonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGenesis SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAyden GarnesDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Sam OlsonTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris HutsonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BarmoreTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Ka'ena DecambraOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChubba MaaeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy BuchananOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Deshawn McKnightDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiaoalii SaveaDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi BaileyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Riley WilsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB4%Braedyn LockePORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB1%Kayden LukeFB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBDaylen Austin · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONCam Chapa · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOMalcolm Hartzog · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECole Rusk · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISDJ Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · USCR.J. Mosley · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMalachi Joyner · SIGNEE ★4Justin Morales · SIGNEE ★4Khalil Sanogo · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPrince Williams · SIGNEE ★3Keytrin Harris · SIGNEE ★3Manoah Faupusa · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMatai Tagoa'i · PORTAL ★3 · USCJaden Parker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBOscar Rios · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBAntwan Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.269 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.065 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.363 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262727652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050707984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484873632113 OF 21 GRADED
OL575747641610 OF 16 GRADED
DL444467621612 OF 16 GRADED
LB45455064167 OF 16 GRADED
DB575757422110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#42 · 6/20 BC69
CLASS RANK TREND+43 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 22 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WSUKIRBY MOOREFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
8585
EXPLOSIVENESS
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSEWSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
38OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
62
RET
76
NATIONAL
41OF 136
RET
8
FULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON STATE DEFENSE
ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH FIFITAQBRET
714TH YR10074★3+15
SAWYER ANDERSONQBRET
492ND YR—66★3—
OSCAR RIOSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—88★4—
LUKE HAUGOQBRET
352ND YR—59★3—
MASON BRAYQBRET
353RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS78% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6231%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
460%20%
SECONDARYDB
6225%16%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
57
RET
64
DL
28OF 138
DL RET
31
LB
77OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7WASHINGTON STATE DEFENSE
ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1636% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIONE TOHIOLRET
502ND YR—58★3—
ALEXANDER DOOSTOLRET
674TH YR—45★3+36 2025
ZACH HENNINGOLTRUE FR
584TH YR—45★3—
JAKE GRIFFINOLPORTAL · BYU
504TH YR—45★3—
JAVIAN GOOOLRET
502ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS82% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAMARJHE LEWISDTPORTAL · SMU
614TH YR4745★3—
PAUL HUTSON IIIDTPORTAL · MARSHALL
604TH YR7245★3+8
MICHAEL HUGHESDERET
493RD YR4914★2—
FERNANDO LECUONADERET
482ND YR—28★3—
GAGE JONESLBRET
482ND YR3517★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
70
PERF
50
RET
79
DL
28OF 138
DL RET
31
LB
77OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7WASHINGTON STATE DEFENSE
ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEDRICK REESCANORBRET
574TH YR7995★4-18
QUINCY CRAIGRBRET
494TH YR5345★3+10
WESLEY YARBROUGHRBRET
492ND YR3468★3-3
ANTWAN ROBERTS JR.RBTRUE FR
474TH YR6278★3+19
ISMAIL MAHDIRBRET
594TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS83% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556231%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45460%20%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
48
RET
63
DB
22OF 138
DB RET
25
SECONDARYWASHINGTON STATE DEFENSE
ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2137% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLE RUSKTEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
674TH YR4995★4+40
TRE SPIVEYWRRET
534TH YR8278★3+22
GIOVANNI RICHARDSONWRRET
532ND YR4978★3+36
R.J. MOSLEYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—95★4—
SHANE KINGTEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
502ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WSU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN THOMASSPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
612ND YR8445★3-13
KAI RAPOLLACBRET
514TH YR3228★3—
JACK BALSPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
493RD YR—45★3—
JAMAREY SMITHCBRET
491ST YR3146★3—
TREY RIDLEYSRET
482ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.5
35.9
— OFFENSE
60.0
37.1
— DEFENSE
41.0
34.6
SP+ OVERALL
10.3
-6.9
FPI
6.0
-7.7
ELO
1608
1533
TALENT
700
630
PRODUCTION
78
37
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.16
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
52
42
DEF EFFICIENCY
81
44
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
62
4
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
71
97
FINISHING DRIVES
36
63
FIELD POSITION
3
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
97
8
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WSU
PASS RATE
54.3%
48.5%
PACE
27.9s
35.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
48.9%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
64.5
51.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = WSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE