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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›HOU @ GASO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
HOUSTON
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALLEN E. PAULSON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U54.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#22AP
31FPI
HOUB12HOUSTON
2-1
59
44
87
81%
75
64
36.0
-950
-17.5
HOME
—AP
101FPI
GASOSBCGEORGIA SOUTHERN
1-2
44
45
2
6%
86
24
18.5
+625
+17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADHOU -17.5
IMPLIED — HOU36.0
IMPLIED — GASO18.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
15 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
12 / 57
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
HOU PACE26.1s
75
GASO PACE25.1s
86
SHARED PACE25.6s
80
PLAY VOLUME141
80
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
HOU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
17
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE17p
17
TEMPO75p
75
GASO56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
65
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE65p
65
TEMPO86p
86
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHOUSTONGEORGIA SOUTHERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB82%Dean ConnorsRB · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStacy SneedRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJMarion BurnetteRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL63%Dalton MerrymanOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemetrius HunterOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew WykoffOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Eddie Walls IIIDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarlos Allen Jr.DL · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Latrell McCutchin Sr.DB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWrook BrownDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZelmar VedderDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB36%Jalen GarnerLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey Platt Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE34%Tanner KoziolDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%Zeon Chriss-GremillionPORTAL · TULANE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBMakhi Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONJohn Hebert · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLAnthony Boswell · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOShadre Hurst · PORTAL ★3 · TULANERhett Gray · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAshton Porter · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONEjiroghene Egodogbare · PORTAL ★3 · YALEDe'Marion Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJavion White · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEJames Henderson III · SIGNEE ★3Javen Holmes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBryson Castile · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETrent Walker · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEMuizz Tounkara · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJeremiah Bushnell · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBKeisean Henderson · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.475 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.562 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.873 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262959762 OF 6 GRADED
RB515171773 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5757725022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL676760017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL50506162166 OF 16 GRADED
LB40406069156 OF 15 GRADED
DB57575865257 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE59th59
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%49
RECRUITING CLASS#38 · 4/19 BC72
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASOCLAY HELTON5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HOUWILLIE FRITZ3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHOU OFFENSEGASO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
62
RET
97
NATIONAL
132OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
HOU QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNER WEIGMANQBRET
574TH YR9195★40 2025
KEISEAN HENDERSONQBTRUE FR
501ST YR2100★5—
LUKE CARNEYQBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
492ND YR—28★3—
JAKE SOCKQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
RYAN SMITHQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3244%4%
SECONDARYDB
4962%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
67
RET
0
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
HOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY BOSWELLOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
773RD YR7785★3+40 2025
DREW TERRILLOLPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
724TH YR—45★3-2 2025
SHADRE HURSTOLPORTAL · TULANE
694TH YR—78★3+41 2025
MCKENZIE AGNELLOOLRET
654TH YR—45★3+46 2025
LARRY CRAWFORDOLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LATRELL BULLARDDLRET
524TH YR——UNR-42 2025
ANTHONY BYNUMLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
504TH YR9717★3-30
CALEB MOOREDLRET
493RD YR—67★3-22 2025
BRANDON TYSONLBRET
494TH YR8517★3+19
JACOB HAMMONDSLBRET
494TH YR2823★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
51
RET
7
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
HOU RUNNING BACKSn=793% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKHI HUGHESRBPORTAL · OREGON
554TH YR10085★3+6
DJ BUTLERRBRET
503RD YR6062★3-1
RE'SHAUN SANFORD IIRBRET
483RD YR6551★3+28
JOHN HEBERTRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—92★4—
ZANE SMITHRBRET
372ND YR—11★2—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453244%4%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
57
RET
50
DB
84OF 138
DB RET
62
SECONDARYGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
HOU PASS CATCHERSn=2250% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARE THOMASWRRET
764TH YR10064★3+26
PATRICK OVERMYERTEPORTAL · UTSA
694TH YR7945★3+32
TRENT WALKERWRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
614TH YR9978★3+23
TYSON TURNERWRPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
483RD YR—45★3—
JAQUISE MARTINWRRET
462ND YR—66★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLO THOMPSONDBRET
514TH YR22—UNR—
JAYLEN BENTLEYDBRET
493RD YR—27★3—
CHANCE GAMBLEDBRET
484TH YR859★3-29
CHACE CALICUTDBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
DEVIN COLLIERDBRET
473RD YR5460★3+57
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.4
65.1
— OFFENSE
54.5
69.8
— DEFENSE
44.2
60.4
SP+ OVERALL
11.6
-6.6
FPI
10.8
-7.8
ELO
1518
1358
TALENT
696
634
PRODUCTION
73
25
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
OFF EFFICIENCY
42
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
54
3
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
43
48
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
52
FINISHING DRIVES
40
74
FIELD POSITION
24
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
79
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
PASS RATE
43.5%
60.9%
PACE
26.1s
25.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.0%
47.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
55.3%
79.1%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
71.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HOU, ORANGE = GASO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE