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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›DEL @ UVA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
DELAWARE
VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP59|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
81FPI
DELCUSADELAWARE
1-1
3
40
3
85%
58
10
0.0
—
—
HOME
#25AP
25FPI
UVAACCVIRGINIA
2-0
62
50
73
10%
46
55
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
DEL81CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
90
PROE
96
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE90p
90
PROE96p
96
TEMPO58p
58
UVA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
67
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE67p
67
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
DELRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.8
DELAWARE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDELAWAREVIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE62%Kyre DuplessisWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake ThawWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Carree KellyPORTAL · NEW HAMPSHIRE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Jack HallDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeyshawn HunterDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan SaundersDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Fintan BroseG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnwar O'NealOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPatrick ShuppOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB45%Nate EvansCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMysonne PollardS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason ScottS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB33%Marje MulumbaLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillon TrainerLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Crenshaw Jr.LB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Zach MarkerQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB2%Saeed St. FleurRB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEBryson Graves · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINACarson Griffin · SIGNEE ★3Rowen Walsh · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLSam Siafa · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEQuincy Smith · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR-RHYNEChristian Corbin · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJack Small · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEMustafa Feika · PORTAL ★3 · TIFFIN UNIVERSITYJaiden Edwards · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJaquise Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEDorian Rutledge · SIGNEE ★3Shawn Church Jr. · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoseph Zamot · SIGNEE ★3Wayne Cunningham Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTyler Bell · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBKaderris Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DELAWARE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.191 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.586 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.584 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB40404210062 OF 6 GRADED
RB3737605886 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE383834592313 OF 23 GRADED
OL55555165167 OF 16 GRADED
DL535330671511 OF 15 GRADED
LB48482877139 OF 13 GRADED
DB484852561914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE3rd3
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#115 · 0/19 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND+40 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 13 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HAVOC
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DELRYAN CARTY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
9797
EXPLOSIVENESS
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9494
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDEL OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDELAWARE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
40
RET
100
NATIONAL
21OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE
DEL QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRADEN STREETERQBRET
513RD YR2542★30
NICK MINICUCCIQBRET
504TH YR81—UNR-3
RILEY TRUJILLOQBRET
403RD YR—74★3—
EJ ARCHIELD JR.QBRET
352ND YR—23★3—
TYLER BELLQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
4594%0%
SECONDARYDB
5231%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDELAWARE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
55
RET
65
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DEL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1635% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY CACCESEOLRET
744TH YR——UNR+16 2025
STEVEN DEMBOSKIOLRET
644TH YR——UNR+41 2025
PATRICK METHLIEOLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
CHANDLER TELFAIREOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
WAHKEEM ROMANOLRET
494TH YR—20★2—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FISHER CAMACDERET
854TH YR9364★3+11
KAM ROBINSONLBRET
704TH YR—83★3-3 2025
JASON HAMMONDDTRET
664TH YR7956★3-8
ANTHONY BRITTONDTRET
614TH YR8248★3-12
NNANNA ANYANWUDEPORTAL · UTSA
614TH YR5978★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDELAWARE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
37
RET
58
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DEL RUNNING BACKSn=842% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NAKEEM POWELLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
JARED PORTERRBRET
492ND YR18—UNR—
GREG SPILLERRBRET
493RD YR3542★3-11
VIRON ELLISON JR.RBRET
463RD YR8154★3+15
KADERRIS ROBERTSRBPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
444TH YR4864★3+21
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454594%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDELAWARE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
38
RET
59
DB
63OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE
DEL PASS CATCHERSn=2341% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEAN WILSONWRRET
683RD YR83—UNR+25
DONOVAN LEWISWRRET
494TH YR55—UNR+1
MATTHEW MCKINLEY-DANIELSWRRET
493RD YR——UNR—
NICK TYREEWRRET
493RD YR18—UNR—
TAE'SEAN ROBINSONWRTRUE FR
481ST YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN JONESSPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
774TH YR7964★3-3
JACOBIE HENDERSONCBPORTAL · RUTGERS
674TH YR9964★3-18
JALEN MCNAIRSPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9745★3+20
OMILLIO AGARDCBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
583RD YR6164★3-32
CHRISTIAN ELLISSPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
564TH YR9964★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DEL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.7
43.1
— OFFENSE
58.6
48.2
— DEFENSE
42.8
38.0
SP+ OVERALL
-8.8
12.7
FPI
-3.8
12.6
ELO
1411
1652
TALENT
483
700
PRODUCTION
18
74
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
−18
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DEL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
OFF EFFICIENCY
60
41
DEF EFFICIENCY
53
87
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
67
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
69
FINISHING DRIVES
45
51
FIELD POSITION
52
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
71
90
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DEL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
PASS RATE
58.2%
28.5%
PACE
26.9s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
51.2%
73.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.0%
37.0%
PLAYS / GAME
67.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.2%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DEL, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE