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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›GT @ STAN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA TECH
STANFORD
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:30 ET|STANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
59FPI
GTACCGEORGIA TECH
0-2
76
90
39
13%
30
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
86FPI
STANACCSTANFORD
1-1
64
23
68
21%
65
81
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GT27CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
36
TEMPO
30
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE36p
36
TEMPO30p
30
STAN52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
33
PROE
58
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE33p
33
PROE58p
58
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GTRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
GEORGIA TECH won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA TECHSTANFORD2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Haynes KingQB · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron PhiloPORTAL · FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE95%Eric RiversWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsiah CanionPORTAL · GEORGIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.T. ByrneTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Omar DanielsDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClayton Powell-LeeDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmari HarveyDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Keylan RutledgeDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison MooreOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe FusileOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB56%Jamal HaynesRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL50%Jordan van den BergDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew AlexanderDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason MooreDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB16%Tah'j ButlerPORTAL · OLE MISS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCole Bergeron · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEJaylen Mbakwe · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAJeffar Jean-Noel · SIGNEE ★3Nate Agyemang · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBTrae Stevenson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Jaedyn Terry · SIGNEE ★4Chris Hewitt Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLCourtney Heard · SIGNEE ★3Courtlin Heard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJustice Haynes · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANREFILLED
DLNoah Carter · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAJordan Walker · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSTaje McCoy · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Outlaw · SIGNEE ★3CJ Gamble · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.639 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
5.92 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.877 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB686864051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353942973 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE72726133247 OF 24 GRADED
OL68687280195 OF 19 GRADED
DL535371322012 OF 20 GRADED
LB39396410073 OF 7 GRADED
DB54546678198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE76th76
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#41 · 3/24 BC70
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 19 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
STANTAVITA PRITCHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GTBRENT KEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
5959
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HAVOC
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGT OFFENSESTAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
68
RET
0
NATIONAL
55OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESTANFORD DEFENSE
GT QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALBERTO MENDOZAQBPORTAL · INDIANA
523RD YR4064★3+39
GRAHAM KNOWLESQBRET
373RD YR278★3—
COLE BERGERONQBTRUE FR
471ST YR——★4—
GRADY ADAMSONQBRET
352ND YR—78★3—
BEN GUTHRIEQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
49100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
40100%14%
SECONDARYDB
5083%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
68
RET
80
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
GT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI CARNEYOLRET
794TH YR9678★3-7
ETHAN MACKENNYOLRET
574TH YR9266★3-10
JOSH PETTYOLRET
502ND YR—97★4—
JAMESON RIGGSOLRET
483RD YR6177★3—
KEVIN PEAY JR.OLRET
482ND YR3876★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS0% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATT ROSELBRET
794TH YR9246★3+0
BRADEN MARCEAU-OLAYINKADLRET
553RD YR7654★3+1
OMAR STAPLESDLRET
543RD YR6659★3+10
CONNOR BACHHUBERDLRET
522ND YR3952★3—
KOLE BRIEHLERDTRET
521ST YR3877★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
53
RET
29
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
GT RUNNING BACKSn=771% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTICE HAYNESRBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
804TH YR90100★4+26 2023
MALACHI HOSLEYRBRET
754TH YR6585★3+29
TRELAIN MADDOXRBRET
483RD YR4067★3-25
CHAD ALEXANDERRBRET
504TH YR—15★2+15 2025
J.P. POWELLRBRET
502ND YR—86★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS0% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5549100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4540100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
72
RET
33
DB
75OF 138
DB RET
83
SECONDARYSTANFORD DEFENSE
GT PASS CATCHERSn=2467% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN HARRISTEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
554TH YR—64★3+29 2025
JORDAN ALLENWRRET
552ND YR4676★3+38
DALEN PENSONWRRET
522ND YR2494★4—
CHRIS CORBOTEPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
524TH YR928★3—
RAHKEEM SMITHWRRET
524TH YR—45★3+7 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM17% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SCOTTY EDWARDSSRET
664TH YR9932★3+9
CHARLIE ECKHARDTSRET
562ND YR6534★3+34
LASIAH JACKSONDBTRUE FR
521ST YR2492★4—
SAM NEELY IIICBRET
522ND YR3345★3—
DARRIUS DAVISSRET
523RD YR7160★3-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
46.7
— OFFENSE
44.7
52.8
— DEFENSE
42.2
40.7
SP+ OVERALL
2.7
-3.9
FPI
1.7
-4.9
ELO
1515
1354
TALENT
752
706
PRODUCTION
70
42
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
OFF EFFICIENCY
95
10
DEF EFFICIENCY
25
39
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
16
39
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
53
25
FINISHING DRIVES
65
19
FIELD POSITION
74
99
TURNOVER MARGIN
14
39
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
PASS RATE
57.0%
56.6%
PACE
29.8s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.6%
52.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.4%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
60.5
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GT, ORANGE = STAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE