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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›MOST @ SMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSOURI STATE
SMU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP64|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
118FPI
MOSTCUSAMISSOURI STATE
1-1
14
33
11
31%
21
15
0.0
—
—
HOME
#17AP
24FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-0
78
76
71
57%
28
53
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MOST60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
73
PROE
84
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE73p
73
PROE84p
84
TEMPO21p
21
SMU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
93
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE93p
93
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MOSTRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
MISSOURI STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSOURI STATESMU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jacob ClarkQB · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce BaileyPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL85%Cash HudsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMark HutchinsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEbubedike NnabugwuOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%DJ WesolakPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmad PoolePORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling SmithsonDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Shomari LawrenceRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB58%Kanye YoungLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BrooksLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Thomas AndersonCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaguire NealS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan DunbarCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE50%Dash LukeWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRonnel JohnsonPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristian GardnerPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSkyler Locklear · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPBrett Ottensmeyer · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLWilliam Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · VMIWilliam Dixon III · PORTAL ★3 · VMIIsaiah Villanueva · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDylan Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASJalile Elliott · PORTAL ★3 · WILSONJosh Lukusa · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI (OH)3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBBreezy Dubar · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEAmar'e Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBStratton Shufelt · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPJedrick Russell Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJoel Kpassou · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEGeo Jallah · PORTAL ★3 · BENEDICT COLLEGEJosiah Turner · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEWitt Edwards · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTIsaiah Myers · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYDeion Thomas · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSOURI STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.936 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.439 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.936 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB212128051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4444377284 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE404040732010 OF 20 GRADED
OL27273738168 OF 16 GRADED
DL404026331814 OF 18 GRADED
LB43433785118 OF 11 GRADED
DB474748472116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE14th14
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%32
RECRUITING CLASS#131 · 0/14 BC2
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 2 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MOSTCASEY WOODSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMOST OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSOURI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
21
RET
0
NATIONAL
16OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE
MOST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SKYLER LOCKLEARQBPORTAL · UTEP
524TH YR8028★3-25
HENRY BELIN IVQBPORTAL · DUKE
504TH YR—17★3-26 2025
ELIJAH LEONARDQBRET
322ND YR—13★2—
BRETT OTTENSMEYERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—44★3—
EIAN FINKLEYQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
6069%10%
SECONDARYDB
5043%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSOURI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
27
RET
38
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
MOST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1662% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATTHEW GREENEOLRET
553RD YR——UNR+27 2025
RYAN MITCHELLOLRET
522ND YR——UNR—
MAKHETE GUEYEOLRET
514TH YR—23★3—
ISAIAH VILLANUEVAOLPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
504TH YR—45★3—
SEBASTIAN ESPINOZAOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM ALCORN-CROWDERDLPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
544TH YR6264★3+28
TREY WILSONDERET
514TH YR—78★3+21 2025
KEVIN ALLENDLRET
503RD YR—61★3-33 2025
BRANDON MIYAZONOLBRET
504TH YR—44★3-47 2025
XAVIER WRIGHTLBRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSOURI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
44
RET
72
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
MOST RUNNING BACKSn=828% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAMONE GREEN JR.RBRET
653RD YR49—UNR+36
JAMBRES DUBARRBTRUE FR
553RD YR6281★3+2
KING DAVISRBRET
491ST YR2151★3—
CONNOR LAIRRBRET
494TH YR24—UNR-59
AMAR'E JOHNSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456069%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSOURI STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
40
RET
73
DB
79OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYSMU DEFENSE
MOST PASS CATCHERSn=2027% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JMARIYAE ROBINSONWRRET
634TH YR8140★3+17
ISAIAH MCMORRISWRRET
502ND YR—82★3—
JAMES REXROATTERET
492ND YR—22★2—
ISAIAH MYERSWRPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
444TH YR—17★3+35 2025
MEKHI MILLERWRPORTAL · TULSA
434TH YR—76★3-3 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARVIS LEESPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
864TH YR—45★3-1 2025
JAYVON THOMASCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
544TH YR—64★3-37 2025
LA'MODRICK SPENCERSRET
534TH YR—54★3—
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.CBRET
523RD YR—89★3-2 2025
JAVION HOLIDAYCBRET
502ND YR—75★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MOST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
34.3
61.2
— OFFENSE 2025
35.4
64.2
— DEFENSE 2025
33.2
58.1
SP+ OVERALL
-16.4
15.3
FPI
-11.9
13.8
ELO
1268
1734
TALENT
550
765
PRODUCTION
9
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MOST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
19
61
DEF EFFICIENCY
36
67
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
99
93
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
67
FINISHING DRIVES
65
85
FIELD POSITION
41
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
25
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MOST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
PASS RATE
37.1%
55.8%
PACE
31.0s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
72.5%
52.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
80.7%
PLAYS / GAME
58.0
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
8.6%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MOST, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE