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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›WAKE @ LOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WAKE FOREST
LOUISVILLE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
52FPI
WAKEACCWAKE FOREST
2-0
55
24
98
14%
54
53
0.0
—
—
HOME
#24AP
28FPI
LOUACCLOUISVILLE
1-1
74
72
84
35%
49
52
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WAKE59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
75
PROE
49
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE75p
75
PROE49p
49
TEMPO54p
54
LOU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
85
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE85p
85
TEMPO49p
49
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WAKERECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
WAKE FOREST won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWAKE FORESTLOUISVILLE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Robby AshfordQB · 80% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshawn PurdiePORTAL · LIBERTY · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL75%George SellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin SianiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin KylanyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%Eni FalayiTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling BerkhalterPORTAL · TEXAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah Mays Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Demond ClaiborneDRAFTED · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMario ClementsRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Nick AndersenDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaron PruntyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLardarius Webb Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB48%Dylan HazenLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy BryantLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Jayden LovingDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNuer GatkuothDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMateen IbirogbaPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGio Lopez · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAGrant Lawless · SIGNEE ★4Gannon Jones · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLLangston Hogg · SIGNEE ★3Fletcher Turk · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Durbin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEWondame Davis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPLandon Morris · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIADominick Barry · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKyndall McCaleb · SIGNEE ★4Deuce Lawrence · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrian Blades ll · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALAJ Marks · SIGNEE ★3Mahamadou Siby · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMonroe Partin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLSefa Sackey · SIGNEE ★3Lucas Smalls-Allen · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Harrington · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WAKE FOREST
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.769 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.236 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.386 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161631052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151685084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626256442513 OF 25 GRADED
OL72725442219 OF 21 GRADED
DL686850881912 OF 19 GRADED
LB53535462106 OF 10 GRADED
DB585855672310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%47
RECRUITING CLASS#39 · 3/31 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 24 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WAKEJAKE DICKERT2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
5050
PASS RATE
8787
EXPLOSIVENESS
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWAKE OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
61
RET
10
NATIONAL
24OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE
WAKE QUARTERBACKSn=590% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GIO LOPEZQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
553RD YR8864★3+23
STEELE PIZZELLAQBRET
411ST YR1055★3—
GRANT LAWLESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GANNON JONESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
BILLY JOHNSONQBRET
323RD YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6458%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
5288%44%
SECONDARYDB
6827%26%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
72
RET
42
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
WAKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2158% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINTON RICHARDOLRET
732ND YR—81★3+49 2025
RYAN BERGEROLPORTAL · OREGON STATE
683RD YR7264★3+41 2025
TOLU OLAJIDEOLPORTAL · NEW HAMPSHIRE
524TH YR4145★3—
JOHN OHNEGIANOLPORTAL · BUCKNELL
524TH YR1945★3—
JACK HINESOLRET
502ND YR5480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLEV LUBINDLRET
834TH YR9278★3+49
JEROD SMITH IIDLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
583RD YR—64★3-7 2025
MICAH CARTERDLRET
553RD YR4364★3—
AJ GREENDLRET
543RD YR7595★4+36
DAYLEN RUSSELLDLPORTAL · MIAMI
521ST YR2845★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
71OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
51
RET
50
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
WAKE RUNNING BACKSn=850% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY CLARK IIIRBRET
653RD YR6361★3+0
DEUCE LAWRENCERBTRUE FR
501ST YR2778★3+29
JAMAR SEARCYRBRET
501ST YR1854★3—
KD DANIELSRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
482ND YR4664★3-13
KALIL TOWNESRBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556458%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455288%44%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
62
RET
44
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
27
SECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE
WAKE PASS CATCHERSn=2556% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDON MORRISTEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
574TH YR6278★3+38
CARLOS HERNANDEZWRRET
554TH YR9578★3+20
KAMREAN JOHNSONTERET
554TH YR5864★3+14
MATTHEW LUSARDITERET
524TH YR——UNR—
KAM SHANKSWRPORTAL · ARKANSAS
503RD YR8845★3+7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOEN ENTRINGERDBPORTAL · IOWA
853RD YR9189★3+28
DJ WALLER JR.CBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
523RD YR6464★3-31
TAYON HOLLOWAYDBRET
514TH YR—78★3-3 2025
JABARI MACKDBRET
494TH YR9928★3-6
ANTONIO WATTSDBRET
494TH YR9839★3+29
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.6
48.3
— OFFENSE
59.5
54.3
— DEFENSE
41.7
42.3
SP+ OVERALL
3.4
14.1
FPI
4.1
11.9
ELO
1508
1668
TALENT
681
740
PRODUCTION
59
81
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−9
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
15
73
DEF EFFICIENCY
93
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
98
29
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
75
FINISHING DRIVES
21
36
FIELD POSITION
22
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
8
71
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
PASS RATE
48.1%
45.8%
PACE
27.1s
27.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.6%
60.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.4%
62.9%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
65.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WAKE, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE