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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›NU @ IU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U49.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
33FPI
NUB1GNORTHWESTERN
2-0
57
56
59
89%
33
58
14.0
+1000
+21.5
HOME
#4AP
5FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
3-0
73
97
97
17%
11
75
35.5
-1800
-21.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADIU -21.5
IMPLIED — NU14.0
IMPLIED — IU35.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
36 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
41 / 57
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
NU PACE28.6s
33
IU PACE31.6s
11
SHARED PACE30.1s
22
PLAY VOLUME120
22
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
49
PROE
33
TEMPO
33
EXPLOSIVE49p
49
PROE33p
33
TEMPO33p
33
IU50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
43
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE43p
43
TEMPO11p
11
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHWESTERNINDIANA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Preston StoneQB · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL57%Carmine BastoneDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNajee StoryDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan HubbardDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Caleb TiernanDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan BeerntsenDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartes LewisOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Mac UihleinLB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE39%Lawson AlbrightTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter WelcingTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB37%Garner WallaceDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred Davis IIDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB10%Cam PorterRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAidan Chiles · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATENicco Marchiol · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAJohnny O'Brien · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDominic Kirks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATENick Zalewski · SIGNEE ★3Tre Hoskins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLGrant Seagren · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEArkel Anugwom · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAOwen Fors · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKobie McKinzie · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAMax Mohring · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TELuke Dehnicke · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTA DULUTHJaden McDuffie · SIGNEE ★4Keaton Reinke · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrenden Deasfernandes · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANGabe Davis-Ray · SIGNEE ★3Jaden Vaughn · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSean Morris II · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHWESTERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.992 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.993 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.783 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444492071 OF 7 GRADED
RB5252576473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5656576222CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL696962021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52525870247 OF 24 GRADED
LB41417448144 OF 14 GRADED
DB50506388226 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%38
RECRUITING CLASS#52 · 2/22 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NUDAVID BRAUN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
PACE
2121
PASS RATE
6666
EXPLOSIVENESS
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HAVOC
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNU OFFENSEIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
8OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEINDIANA DEFENSE
NU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN CHILESQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR8592★4-7
NICCO MARCHIOLQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
473RD YR—64★3+2 2025
RYAN BOEQBRET
492ND YR—50★3—
GAVIN FRAKESQBRET
374TH YR—9★3-22 2022
AIDAN GRAYQBTRUE FR
353RD YR—65★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
7692%18%
SECONDARYDB
7574%16%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
69
RET
0
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
NU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EZOMO ORATOKHAIOLRET
812ND YR—60★3+46 2025
JACKSON CARSELLOOLRET
684TH YR—58★3+29 2025
GRANT SEAGRENOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
543RD YR—64★3-21 2025
IDRYS COTTONOLRET
522ND YR—65★3—
ARKEL ANUGWOMOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROLIJAH HARDYLBRET
823RD YR90—UNR+21
STEPHEN DALEYDLRET
824TH YR9964★3+35
TYRIQUE TUCKERDLRET
674TH YR9664★3+1
ISAIAH JONESLBRET
664TH YR8881★3+23
MARIO LANDINODLRET
653RD YR8324★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
52
RET
64
DL
2OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
5OF 138
LB RET
92
FRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE
NU RUNNING BACKSn=736% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN SAWCHUKRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
614TH YR9464★3-1
CALEB KOMOLAFERBRET
543RD YR9046★3-21
DANIEL ANDERSONRBRET
491ST YR—79★3—
JOSEPH HIMON IIRBRET
494TH YR8376★3-6
MARCUS ROMAINRBRET
351ST YR—64★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558249%21%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457692%18%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
56
RET
62
DB
1OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYINDIANA DEFENSE
NU PASS CATCHERSn=2238% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRIFFIN WILDEWRRET
704TH YR8278★3+29
ALEX HONIGTEPORTAL · UCONN
614TH YR5764★3+27
HAYDEN ELIGON IIWRRET
543RD YR8342★3+19
ROBBY PRECKELTERET
482ND YR—53★3—
DREW WAGNERWRRET
463RD YR569★2-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUAN SANKSDBTRUE FR
683RD YR8564★3+12
PRESTON ZACHMANDBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
564TH YR9864★3+24
JAMARI SHARPEDBRET
524TH YR9869★3-10
BYRON BALDWIN JR.DBRET
512ND YR3491★4—
JAYLEN BELLDBRET
502ND YR3769★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.8
50.0
— OFFENSE
40.2
63.3
— DEFENSE
43.4
36.7
SP+ OVERALL
7.8
25.4
FPI
9.3
24.6
ELO
1625
2121
TALENT
688
735
PRODUCTION
64
97
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−47
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
98
DEF EFFICIENCY
10
96
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
46
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
87
15
FINISHING DRIVES
25
98
FIELD POSITION
61
21
TURNOVER MARGIN
19
100
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
PASS RATE
38.1%
34.5%
PACE
28.6s
31.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.5%
71.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
46.1%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
57.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.0%
7.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NU, ORANGE = IU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE