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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›NEB @ MSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEBRASKA
MICHIGAN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U48.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
21FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
3-0
85
73
73
46%
79
87
27.0
-218
-5.5
HOME
—AP
56FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-1
56
64
49
21%
51
67
21.5
+180
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADNEB -5.5
IMPLIED — NEB27.0
IMPLIED — MSU21.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
46 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
23 / 57
DISAGREEMENT23 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 23 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
NEB PACE25.7s
79
MSU PACE27.6s
51
SHARED PACE26.6s
65
PLAY VOLUME135
65
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEB82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
70
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE70p
70
TEMPO79p
79
MSU47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
68
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE68p
68
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEBRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
NEBRASKA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKAMICHIGAN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB74%Emmett JohnsonDRAFTED · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Dylan RaiolaPORTAL · OREGON · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB61%Javin WrightLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Watson-TrentLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Henry LutovskyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco SpindlerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTurner CorcoranOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Ceyair WrightDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeShon SingletonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Buford Jr.DB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL33%Elijah JeudyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeona DavisPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE24%Dane KeyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHeinrich HaarbergTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJamal Rule · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAnthony Colandrea · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVDaniel Kaelin · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAREFILLED
LBOwen Chambliss · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEWill Hawthorne · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJase Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrendan Black · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATETree Babalade · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAPaul Mubenga · PORTAL ★3 · LSU3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDwayne McDougle · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEJasin Shiggs · PORTAL ★3 · TOWSONVictor Evans III · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLAnthony Jones · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJahsear Whittington · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHOwen Stoudmire · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKwazi Gilmer · PORTAL ★3 · UCLALuke Sorensen · SIGNEE ★3Nalin Scott · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.988 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.974 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.990 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414178041 OF 4 GRADED
RB7171796254 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE555582802511 OF 25 GRADED
OL55557858207 OF 20 GRADED
DL494979502117 OF 21 GRADED
LB52526961145 OF 14 GRADED
DB626268722111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%83
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 3/12 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-70 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HAVOC
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
41
RET
0
NATIONAL
72OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NEB QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY COLANDREAQBPORTAL · UNLV
764TH YR9878★3+5
TJ LATEEFQBRET
502ND YR—91★4+5 2025
DANIEL KAELINQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
472ND YR—45★3-28 2025
BODE SOUKUPQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4475%22%
SECONDARYDB
6020%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
55
RET
58
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN EVANSOLRET
774TH YR—43★3+31 2025
BRENDAN BLACKOLPORTAL · IOWA STATE
654TH YR—97★4-2 2025
GUNNAR GOTTULAOLRET
553RD YR—78★3-35 2025
TREE BABALADEOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
553RD YR—78★3-16 2025
TYLER KNAAKOLRET
524TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS44% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DION CRAWFORDLBPORTAL · BUFFALO
644TH YR—45★3-8 2025
JORDAN HALLLBRET
624TH YR9794★4-1
KENNY SOARES JR.EDGEPORTAL · NC STATE
614TH YR9564★3+49
BEN ROBERTSDLRET
544TH YR6528★3-36
ANELU LAFAELEEDGERET
532ND YR3885★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
79
PERF
71
RET
62
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NEB RUNNING BACKSn=538% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH MOZEERBRET
562ND YR4289★4-30
MEKHI NELSONRBRET
542ND YR4577★3+12
JAMAL RULERBTRUE FR
521ST YR3077★3+36
KWINTEN IVESRBRET
513RD YR—67★3+31 2025
CONOR BOOTHRBRET
491ST YR—77★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%22%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
55
RET
80
DB
27OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2520% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE LINDENMEYERTERET
584TH YR76—UNR+5
CARTER NELSONTERET
563RD YR—98★4-21 2025
NYZIAH HUNTERWRRET
533RD YR9592★4+8
JACORY BARNEY JR.WRRET
513RD YR9485★4-1
KEELAN SMITHWRRET
492ND YR—73★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHARLES BRANTLEYCBPORTAL · MIAMI
664TH YR9678★3-15
KHALIL MAJEEDSRET
534TH YR56—UNR+13
DEVIN VAUGHTSPORTAL · MAINE
523RD YR1628★3—
TYRAN CHAPPELLCBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
522ND YR928★3—
TRE BELLCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR7978★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
46.4
— OFFENSE
58.9
47.1
— DEFENSE
44.0
45.6
SP+ OVERALL
13.0
3.5
FPI
14.2
4.3
ELO
1715
1537
TALENT
787
685
PRODUCTION
77
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
36
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
80
FINISHING DRIVES
45
35
FIELD POSITION
11
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
PASS RATE
44.3%
43.4%
PACE
25.7s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.6%
64.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.2%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
70.0
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.9%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE