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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›ORE @ USC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OREGON
USC
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U62.0COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#21AP
9FPI
OREB1GOREGON
2-1
99
90
94
75%
89
84
32.3
-140
-2.5
HOME
#12AP
18FPI
USCB1GUSC
4-0
94
99
47
59%
69
88
29.8
+120
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL62.0
SPREADORE -2.5
IMPLIED — ORE32.3
IMPLIED — USC29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
1 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
5 / 57
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
ORE PACE24.8s
89
USC PACE26.3s
69
SHARED PACE25.5s
79
PLAY VOLUME141
79
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ORE78CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
84
PROE
62
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE84p
84
PROE62p
62
TEMPO89p
89
USC55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
19
PROE
77
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE19p
19
PROE77p
77
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONUSC2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE59%Kenyon SadiqDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik BensonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Bryant Jr.WR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Noah WhittingtonRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden LimarPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay HarrisPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HarkeyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WorldOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Dillon ThienemanDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon CanadyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTheran JohnsonDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Blake PurchasePORTAL · OLE MISS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance GreenPORTAL · ALABAMA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton PorterPORTAL · HOUSTON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Bryce BoettcherDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Luke MogaPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIverson Hooks · PORTAL ★3 · UABJalen Lott · SIGNEE ★5Kendre Harrison · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSimeon Price · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTradarian Ball · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Smith · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLImmanuel Iheanacho · SIGNEE ★5Tommy Tofi · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBKoi Perich · PORTAL ★4 · MINNESOTAAaron Scott Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJett Washington · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLD'Antre Robinson · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAAnthony Jones Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Tony Cumberland · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Hodge · SIGNEE ★4Tristan Phillips · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBDylan Raiola · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKABryson Beaver · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.184 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.591 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB727210010061 OF 6 GRADED
RB68689410082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE77779774226 OF 22 GRADED
OL75758585208 OF 20 GRADED
DL5656939695 OF 9 GRADED
LB545490100197 OF 19 GRADED
DB68689664228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO62%95
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 18/25 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 13 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USCLINCOLN RILEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEUSC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
72
RET
100
NATIONAL
51OF 136
RET
47
FULL DEFENSEUSC DEFENSE
ORE QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANTE MOOREQBRET
683RD YR87100★4+27
BROCK THOMASQBRET
503RD YR—34★3—
DYLAN RAIOLAQBPORTAL · NEBRASKA
493RD YR—99★4+24 2025
AKILI SMITH JR.QBRET
471ST YR—93★4—
RYDER HAYESQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6248%57%
LINEBACKERSLB
5365%38%
SECONDARYDB
6064%55%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
75
RET
85
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
65
FRONT-7USC DEFENSE
ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2015% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SOLOMON KROEKEROLTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
IAPANI LALOULUOLRET
874TH YR—87★4+40 2025
DAVE IULIOLRET
784TH YR—93★4+43 2025
GERNORRIS WILSONOLRET
533RD YR—86★4—
ZIYARE ADDISONOLRET
521ST YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX VANSUMERENDTPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
844TH YR8789★3-34
JIDE ABASIRIDTRET
603RD YR7688★4+9
LUKE WAFLEDETRUE FR
521ST YR28100★5—
JAMAAL JARRETTDTRET
523RD YR5192★4—
JAIMEON WINFIELDDTTRUE FR
521ST YR—99★5—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
68
RET
100
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
65
FRONT-7USC DEFENSE
ORE RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDON DAVISONRBRET
882ND YR7193★4+35
DIERRE HILL JR.RBRET
682ND YR5994★4+37
DA'JAUN RIGGSRBRET
502ND YR—77★3+25 2025
BRANDON SMITHRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
TRADARIAN BALLRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556248%57%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455365%38%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
77
RET
74
DB
29OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYUSC DEFENSE
ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2226% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
IVERSON HOOKSWRPORTAL · UAB
774TH YR—85★3+24 2025
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANWRRET
632ND YR7197★4+24
JAMARI JOHNSONTERET
583RD YR7692★4+46
DAKORIEN MOOREWRRET
582ND YR66100★5+10
EVAN STEWARTWRRET
544TH YR100100★5-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JONTEZ WILLIAMSCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
824TH YR9398★4+30
CHRISTIAN PIERCESRET
784TH YR8485★4+8
KENNEDY URLACHERSRET
583RD YR6578★30
RJ SERMONSCBRET
521ST YR2096★4—
MARCELLES WILLIAMSCBRET
522ND YR—94★4-22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
51.3
— OFFENSE
62.9
58.2
— DEFENSE
51.6
44.4
SP+ OVERALL
22.9
19.5
FPI
19.2
15.4
ELO
1838
1817
TALENT
984
899
PRODUCTION
99
92
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−6
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.62
0.56
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
94
DEF EFFICIENCY
89
14
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
85
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
86
FINISHING DRIVES
90
91
FIELD POSITION
18
88
TURNOVER MARGIN
88
68
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
PASS RATE
55.0%
47.1%
PACE
24.8s
26.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.2%
60.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.8%
73.0%
PLAYS / GAME
72.7
68.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.5%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = USC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE