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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›MINN @ WASH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MINNESOTA
WASHINGTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUSKY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
74FPI
MINNB1GMINNESOTA
1-1
71
39
57
65%
54
78
0.0
—
—
HOME
#19AP
44FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
2-0
83
91
76
54%
65
88
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MINN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
8
PROE
87
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE8p
8
PROE87p
87
TEMPO54p
54
WASH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
53
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE53p
53
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMINNESOTAWASHINGTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE61%Jameson GeersTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLe'Meke BrockingtonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew BiberTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Koi PerichPORTAL · OREGON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius GreenDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZa'Quan BryanCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Deven EasternDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen Logan-ReddingDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRushawn LawrenceDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Fame IjeboiPORTAL · PURDUE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam DavisRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB39%Devon WilliamsLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Dylan RayOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcellus MarshallOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEPerry Thompson · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNQuayd Hendryx · SIGNEE ★4Rico Blassingame · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAydan West · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJustin Hopkins · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Lampkins · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLXion Chapman · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALSid Kaba · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLTJ Bush Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBRyan Estrada · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBHudson Dunn · SIGNEE ★3Angel Luciano · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBennett Warren · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEAndrew Trout · SIGNEE ★4Gavin Meier · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MINNESOTA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.589 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.489 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.478 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959657863 OF 6 GRADED
RB5959825396 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE454571482014 OF 20 GRADED
OL595966581712 OF 17 GRADED
DL676776512316 OF 23 GRADED
LB69695693107 OF 10 GRADED
DB494969682115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE71st71
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#28 · 6/31 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMINN OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
59
RET
78
NATIONAL
20OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE
MINN QUARTERBACKSn=622% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DRAKE LINDSEYQBRET
483RD YR7373★3+9
BRADY PALMERQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—64★3—
MAX SHIKENJANSKIQBRET
374TH YR112★2—
MICHAEL MERDINGERQBPORTAL · LIBERTY
483RD YR—45★3+27 2025
DYLAN WITTKEQBRET
414TH YR—17★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
47100%14%
SECONDARYDB
6863%31%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
44OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
59
RET
58
DL
81OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
MINN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1742% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN ROYOLRET
713RD YR—93★4+5 2025
GREG JOHNSONOLRET
664TH YR——UNR+35 2025
BRETT CARROLLOLRET
523RD YR—79★3—
JEROME WILLIAMSOLRET
524TH YR—84★4—
DANIEL SHIPPOLRET
502ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACOB MANULBRET
624TH YR10064★3+25
ELINNEUS DAVISDLRET
553RD YR7668★3-34
RUSSELL DAVIS IIEDGERET
554TH YR7278★3+35
TAARIQ AL-UQDAHLBRET
524TH YR9545★3+18
LOGAN GEORGEEDGEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
35OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
59
RET
53
DL
81OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
MINN RUNNING BACKSn=947% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
A.J. TURNERRBRET
574TH YR—85★3+35 2025
DARIUS TAYLORRBRET
544TH YR9987★4+4
JARON THOMASRBPORTAL · PURDUE
512ND YR545★3—
XAVIER FORDRBRET
502ND YR2271★3+12
RYAN ESTRADARBTRUE FR
501ST YR—87★4—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4547100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMINNESOTA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
94OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
45
RET
48
DB
9OF 138
DB RET
63
SECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE
MINN PASS CATCHERSn=2052% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAVON TRACYWRRET
554TH YR9978★3+11
GEORGE ROHLTETRUE FR
521ST YR—48★3—
HAYDEN MOOREWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3—
QUAYD HENDRYXWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—88★4—
BRADLEY MARTINOWRRET
502ND YR—87★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX MCLAUGHLINSRET
894TH YR8678★3+16
RYLON DILLARD-ALLENSRET
682ND YR6593★4+45
DYLAN ROBINSONCBRET
622ND YR6494★4-11
RAHSHAWN CLARKSRET
492ND YR6582★3+23
JERON JONESCBTRUE FR
481ST YR—85★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.1
56.3
— OFFENSE
60.0
62.1
— DEFENSE
42.2
50.5
SP+ OVERALL
4.7
11.1
FPI
-1.3
5.9
ELO
1452
1757
TALENT
729
778
PRODUCTION
71
88
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.18
0.30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
OFF EFFICIENCY
32
93
DEF EFFICIENCY
27
79
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
49
65
FINISHING DRIVES
54
92
FIELD POSITION
22
55
TURNOVER MARGIN
64
61
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
PASS RATE
61.7%
57.4%
PACE
27.1s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
44.0%
47.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
70.3%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MINN, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE